Currently, we are experiencing the SPX topping formation. Again, it is dangerously overextended. The SPX staged a strong rally due to the repeated actions of central bankers, during the month of February 2016.
Presently. we are truly living, investing and trading in unprecedented times. Another push higher into nominal new highs as occurred April 1 is not out of the question, and then within a week or two they should start cycling back down.
There are strong headwinds ahead for any attempted rallies that may take place. There is bearish divergence within several momentum oscillators. This is signaling major warning signs! There are no bullish or favorable long setups in the marketplace. I would look towards unexpected choppy price movements across the board.
Investor sentiment has reading levels associated with peaks in equity market advances.
It is dangerous when the markets have nothing of substance sustaining them, other than their dependence on the Federal Reserve's announcements regarding its' monetary support. It is extremely dangerous when the Fed tailors its remarks so as to support financial asset levels. This is not the mandate of the Fed. However, we are all waiting to hear its next announcements.
When Janet Yellen can make a couple of phone calls and spur an equities rally to new highs, then we are fools.
Interventions by Central Banks, cannot change the long-term trend from bearish to bullish. They are merely delaying the inevitable and creating a slow roasting bear market (It has already started to unfold in U.S. large cap stocks). While these central bankers' actions are behind us, we are currently entering the earning season, which is most likely to disappoint Wall Street analysts.
The U.S. is currently experiencing the worst economic recovery in its history following a recession that was the most severe downturn since the Great Depression. It's possible that we will slip back into recession.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. He is a full-time trader and founder of the TheGoldAndOilGuy Newsletter.