I am getting nervous about this market. Why? It's always the same combination of factors:
- My longs don't go down, but they do stop going up. It's almost as if any momentum they might have had is suddenly squashed.
Slowly but surely, the short side gets easier. Mind you, I'm still not finding a lot of new shorts, but the ones I have in play are starting to drop.
Every move up or down seems to be met by a move on the opposite side. No rally can be sustained, no decline completed. It's as if the market just wants to stay in stall mode. Frustrating.
Given all this, I am almost certain something big is going to happen. It could be an explosive move up (possible), or a big drop down (more likely). The fact is, though, I just don't know.
In that vein, let me show you some charts that have some good in them. And some bad. They're pretty indicative, then, of this market. Anything could happen, so you wouldn't want to place big bets either way right now.
I know, some real fence-sitters, aren't they? Now, take a look at your open positions. I'm willing to bet a lot of them look exactly the same way.
A Second Look at the Swoosh
Different topic for second, and that's the
story. I mean, look at poster boy
. Four wins this year, and maybe, finally, becoming the
-star everyone thought he'd be.
Or look at the U.S. women's soccer team, especially those Nike undergarments!
I mean everything's coming up Nike lately, so in the best
tradition, you should buy the stock, right?
Well, positive public relations notwithstanding, it still looks like the stock has some work to do.
In fact, many years ago, Nike was the kind of stock I'd buy based solely on all the good press it'd been getting. But now that I (and hopefully, you) know a bit about TA, why not wait until the good news and the good chart come together? Going back to the
TF II contest (which I'll update shortly), the combination of fundy and TA can be extremely powerful!
Back to my iffy theme, even if only momentarily, reader
requested a chart of
, a stock undergoing a lot of turmoil lately.
poses an interesting question not only about
, but also in general. And that is, how does one figure out support with stocks that rarely pause but just keep going up?
For stocks like JDSU and other highfliers, I've found it helpful to use a simple trendline as "support." No, it's not support in the classic sense, but any breakage of the trendline certainly indicates a change in investor psychology. And it's this change that's important anyway, so a trendline across the majority of lows can often be very helpful. Simply stay long if the stock stays above that trendline, and close your position (or even go short if the break is big enough) if the trendline is broached.
, and presciently before last week's announcement that a California jury awarded $4.9 billion in damages to victims of a rear-end collision involving a Chevy Malibu. But did that judgment change the complexion of the stock one iota? Nah, it's been lousy for months and looks like it intends to stay that way.
And finally, if you liked the discussion above, you should love "TheStreet.com" TV show. Tune in Saturday at 10 a.m. on
. I'll be the slightly goofy-looking one with the lame-o goatee!
Gary B. Smith is a freelance writer who trades for his own account from his Maryland home using technical analysis. At time of publication, he held no positions in any securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Smith writes five technical analysis columns for TheStreet.com each week, including Technician's Take, Charted Territory and TSC Technical Forum. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he welcomes your feedback at