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You can't watch a business television show today without some pundit lamenting over the bottom of the market. Have we reached it? How low can we go?
Much of this discussion is folly. I looked at a chart today that compared the current decline in the
vs. the last two crashes in 1973 and 2000. What is striking isn't the similar peak-to-trough price declines but the fact that the speed of this current crash has been about twice as fast as the others.
During the oil crisis of 1973-1974, the market fell around 47% in 21 months. The dot-com bubble slide in 2000 to 2002 caused the market to fall 47.4% in 31 months. Our current decline started in October 2007, and as of yesterday, the S&P 500 is down 48% in just over 13 months.
S&P 500 Crashes
So the question is, what is more important when evaluating whether a bottom has been put in place -- the magnitude of the price decline or the length of time of a bear market?
There are many ways to interpret the data. Some market pundits would say that the most recent percentage decline has been one of the worst on record when we compare it with other such corrections. So we could be getting close to a bottom.
There is no doubt that stocks look cheap. The problem with this analysis is that just because a stock is cheap, it doesn't necessarily mean that it has stopped going down. The main concern is that fundamentals haven't bottomed, so even though the price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, looks cheap, there is no confidence in the "E." Therefore, it's difficult to value whether anything is in fact cheap.
Other analysts and pundits would say that since this correction has lasted only 13 months, the markets could go down even more, especially if history repeats itself and it takes another year to sort this out. Since there are no rules out on how long a correction needs to take place, this is also a hard case to make.
What makes this correction more complicated is the fact that there are so many different problems that we need to fix, No. 1 being that investor confidence needs to be restored in the U.S. and world economies, as well as in the financial markets. In order for that to happen, the financial services industry needs to begin lending again while continuing to deleverage, the auto industry needs a complete overhaul even if it gets the $25 billion from the government, the housing market has to stabilize, foreclosures need to slow and a plan must be put in place that helps people hold on to their homes. These issues must be addressed quickly in order to stop the unemployment rate from getting out of control.
I believe that over time the problems will be fixed, as President-Elect Obama has a sense of urgency and is putting together a strong team to deal with all of these issues. It will take time, but the market is a discounting mechanism and has priced in a lot of this bad news already.
The selling has been indiscriminate -- large cap, small cap, high quality, low quality. Everything is down and down hard. So while it is very difficult to predict whether or not we are close to a bottom, the markets have priced in a lot of bad news and will anticipate a recovery long before the headlines get better.
Owning large-cap, high-quality companies that have strong balance sheets and good yield support, such as
, is the best strategy for now.
Being diversified with an overweight allocation in the recession-resistant industries - health care and staples -- also makes a lot of sense. It's worth giving a look at
Procter & Gamble
If you invest wisely in recession-proof strategies, your portfolio will be resistant to additional decline when a market bottom finally arrives.
Chevron (CVX), Kraft (KFT), Pepsi (PEP), Abbot Labs (ABT), Bristol-Myers (BMY) and Procter & Gamble (PG) are included in the portfolio of ActionAlerts PLUS, a subscription service from
Stephanie Link is the director of research for ActionAlerts PLUS. Click here for a free trial.