We don't have enough macro numbers to refute that darn CPI number. The calendar doesn't give us ammo until the end of the month.
The bet here is that the CPI number was an outlier, that the number doesn't make sense vs. everything -- ex-real estate -- we are seeing. But you can't prove something is an outlier with no data.
That's what makes the
position so difficult. If
says nothing, his credibility is high enough for the markets -- both bond and stock -- to say, hey, maybe that CPI was an outlier and things are going to be better. But we have too long to wait to see if that's the case.
You could argue, of course, that I am just talking my bond position, but remember if you don't finance bonds, they do quite well over the weekend when stocks don't make you a dime. Not only am I not financing my bonds (I am not borrowing money to own them) but I am using them as a higher-risk cash proxy.
Longer term, then, again, because I think the CPI was not in sync with the rest of the numbers, this worrisome period will turn out to be just one more fantastico stock buying opportunity.
Just not now.
: Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't the IPO for
a great branding exercise that has now been wasted by
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund had no positions in any stocks mentioned. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at