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A week after Oracle (ORCL) - Get Oracle Corporation Report broke out on March 16, the stock ran out of steam. Since then, shares have been drifting sideways to lower while consolidating the huge gains off the January lows.

This month, Oracle has held a very solid support zone near the $39 area and as the week comes to a close is setting up as a low-risk buy. If this productive action continues into next week, Oracle investors could be rewarded with a new rally phase.

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Back in mid-March, Oracle exploded to the upside following its blowout earnings report. The stock finished March 16 with a 3.8% gain on its heaviest upside trade since late 2014. This powerful breakout move began with a huge upside gap just below $39. A week later, the stock ran into a wall near $42 and soon began the consolidation process that continues today.

Earlier this month, Oracle filled the powerful March 16 breakout gap. The stock retested this key level yesterday and held despite fairly heavy selling pressure. Today the stock is building on yesterday's midday rebound with a 1.6% gain. For bulls, this is a positive sign.

In the near term, patient investors should consider the stock a low-risk buy in the $39.50-to-$38.50 area. This important zone includes the December high at the upper band and this week's low at the lower band. In the middle is the earnings-inspired breakout gap from March 16. On the upside, a move past the May high of $40.43 would be an key hurdle.

Disclosure: This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author was long ORCL.