Berko's law: When there is a 50-50 split on a Fed move, the first move is down because the disappointed contingent panics and blows out of stocks.

Yep, my partner,

Jeff Berkowitz

, and I have been kicking this one around, and I think he's got the best handle on it. Because the market is up going into the Fed statement, those who don't see what they want will become aggressive sellers.

Given that scenario, we are prepping our list of techs and cyclicals to buy on a nothing done, and our drugs and

Colgates

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to buy on a tightening bias.

In the meantime, we are huddling off the desk every few minutes to try to make sense of the banks, the

DOT and the semis, in that order.

And we are doing a lot of fretting. Man, are we good at fretting. If they paid us for fretting, we could have retired off this morning's proceeds.

James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund had no positions in any stocks mentioned. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at

letters@thestreet.com.