Remember the Seinfeld episode when Frank Costanza (Jerry Stiller playing George's father), in order to avoid getting aggravated and to remain calm, would raise his hands in the air and say, in an especially loud voice, "Serenity now. Serenity now?"
This self-help mantra was intended to soothe his perpetually frayed nerves, but it really only postponed the inevitable -- Frank would eventually blow his gasket.
We think most investors are already imitating Frank Costanza's "Serenity Now" mantra. We also think most investors are close to blowing their gasket trying to determine the market's trend. And we figure gaskets are going to be blown because the game has become especially hard lately; sort of like the
playoffs where "they kick it up a notch and take it to another level."
So in a "Win or Go Home" format, we believe the game has become a mix of:
Figuring out the difference between traders trading to each other, and the durable group trends.
Balancing out the need to beat other managers in order to keep funds in-house.
Continuing to hope against hope that the Fed will act oh-so-prudently, allowing the economy to quietly and quickly revert back to its Goldilocks past from its Terminator present.
If I had my choice I'd much rather be faced with task No.1 and No.2 because, if I remember my lessons properly, most fairly tales (especially those written by the brothers Grimm) were filled with interfamily homicide, torture and cannibalism.
The Nasdaq I:IXIC.
Support levels, based on Tuesday's close of 3717.57 are 3500, 3367, 3250 and 3225. Resistance is 3710, 3820 and 3980.
is bullish because it is above support at 50, and above its upward-sloping 50- and 200-day moving averages. But if you were to make some sales in GE, wouldn't you make them here? That's the way I'm playing it.
The stock has met resistance at current levels from late April, and GE has been in a trading range of 50 to 55 since March 23 (actual numbers are 47 11/16 on April 14, and 55 63/64 on April 26) says it pulls back to the bottom of the range ...
Which Means ...
should pull back, too. With both indexes above their respective 50- and 200-day moving averages I don't believe there is a lot of risk here. I also don't think either index rallies strongly from here because the odds (still too much internal weakness, tech is splintered, weak bond market, etc.) and the Fed's statements suggest that new highs are unlikely anytime soon. Support levels for the DJIA are 10750, 10500 and 10290:
And support levels for the S&P 500 are 1440, 1425 and 1400.
The 10-year T-Note doesn't act well. If fixed income investors were satisfied with recent Fed action and follow-on statement, the 10-year T-Note would've rallied sharply. Yeah, it rose 1/4 point, but it closed virtually unchanged from where it was on May 10 -- hardly a resounding vote of confidence for the Fed. A close under near-term support of 95, which I think happens, will be bad news for fixed income investors and bad news for stocks and say a retest of the Jan. 21 low for the 10-year T-Note follows thereafter. From a yield perspective, the rate on the 10-year will work back toward 6.8%.
I screen daily the roughly 400 U.S. stocks with market caps greater than or equal to $6 billion and over the last two days this screening produced four 52-week highs:
St. Paul Companies
(which has been and remains awesome) and
American International Group
These four are definitely bullish, but it's hard to make a living on four new highs. With the idea that energy and health care services are among the more bullish sectors, other screens produced the following list of favorable patterns:
Pepsi Bottling Group
Marsh & McLennan
RF Micro Devices
(please take a look at a long-term chart of this one, the base is outstanding) and
Circuit City Stores
(which I will run again if it closes above 65, target thereafter 80).
John Roque is the technical analyst at Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder, a New York-based investment brokerage firm specializing in Europe and the U.S., and a frequent guest on CNBC. At time of publication, Roque had no position in any of the securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Roque appreciates your feedback at