OK, so there are no deals to buy. That's a forgone conclusion. So how are you going to make any money in this market? Easy, look for pressure and sell 'em!
The number of IPOs over the next month coming out of their lockups is huge. The daily volume out there on both the
is nothing, and the total lack of buyers makes any addition to the existing supply of sellers pure added downward pressure. I'd watch carefully for any news stories on the stocks in the table indicating selling shareholders. News like this is like a fan on the flames, and financial writers are watching the insiders like hawks.
Another easy sign of a lockup stock in trouble is a spike in volume and a hard down day when no news is out. The name of the game here is downward momentum, and with enough sellers going against these stocks there is big upside for shorts.
Try to put yourself in the shoes of a big-number insider on one of these deals. You're looking at a huge concentration of your wealth in one stock, and it's getting trounced in a rough market -- will it ever recover? Are you ever going to see those millions you've been counting on turned into cash? These are all-too-real concerns for many of the execs and insiders of these recently public companies. So, with the pressure they're feeling from helplessly watching their fortunes evaporate, how quick do you think they'll be to sell now that they can? That's right.
A cool way to monitor these issues would be to go to the
portfolio tracker here on
, and build a list with today's closing prices as your cost. Watch them closely and look for individual issues to fall apart.
Watch for that jump in volume and downward lurches in the stock prices. In a dead market like this any idea that works is a good idea.
Let me know me how it goes.
Here's the list:
Ben Holmes is the founder of
ipoPros.com , a Boulder, Colo.-based research boutique (now a wholly-owned subsidiary of TheStreet.com) specializing in the analysis of equity syndicate offerings. This column is not meant as investment advice; it is instead meant to provide insight into the methods of new and secondary offerings. Neither Holmes nor his firm has entered indications of interest in any of the companies discussed in this column. Holmes' This Week in IPOs column appears Sundays, This Week's Secondaries appears Tuesdays, Upcoming Lockup Expirations appears Wednesdays and The Quiet Period appears on Fridays. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Holmes appreciates your feedback at