The U.S. stock market ended 2015 with all five major equity averages having negative weekly charts. When 2016 began, charts signaled the "year of the bear" had begun.

It may seem like we are in a bull market, and some say this market can't be taken down. But when the quarter ends Thursday, Friday -- April Fool's Day -- could show the bear hasn't really gone away.

The five major equity averages begin this week straddling their 200-day simple moving averages. The Dow Jones Industrial AverageI:DJI , the S&P 500 I:GSPC and the Dow Jones Transportation Average are above their 200-day simple moving averages of 17,131, 2,017. and 7.831, respectively. The Nasdaq CompositeI:IXIC and the Russell 2000 are below their 200-day simple moving averages of 4,867 and 1,144.42, respectively.

The weekly charts are positive for the five major averages, but with negative divergences. The Dow 30 shows a downtrend connecting the lower highs since the all-time May 19 on 18,351.36. The S&P 500 also shows lower highs since its all-time high of 2,134.72 set on May 20. The Nasdaq is between its 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements from the all-time high of 5,231.94 set on July 20 to the 2016 low of 4,209.76 set on Feb. 11. Dow transports and the Russell 2000 are still in correction territory 14.9% and 16.7% below all-time highs of 9.310.33 and 1,296.00 set on Nov. 28, 2014 and June 23, respectively.

The bulls will begin April still touting money printing and low to negative interest rates as reasons to be bullish on stocks. But buyers beware: When a central bank props up a market with monetary policies that do not work, those markets are doomed when investors begin to lose money.

Here are the daily charts for the exchange-traded funds that track the five major averages, including their Fibonacci retracements.

The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) - Get Report , aka Diamonds.


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The daily chart for Diamonds shows the Fibonacci retracements from the all-time high of $183.35 set on May 20 to the Aug. 24 "Black Monday" low of $150.57.

Diamonds ended last week at $174.94, up 0.5% year to date and 13.3% above the year-to-date low of $154.38 set on Jan. 20. The ETF is above its 61.8% retracement of $170.79 and above its 200-day simple moving average at $171.23. Note that the ETF is below a downtrend resistance at $176.59 that connects the highs going back to May 20.

Investors looking to buy Diamonds should consider doing so on weakness to $173.35, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of the week. Investors looking to reduce holdings should do so on strength to $177.66, which is a key level on technical charts for the remainder of March.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) - Get Report , aka Spiders.


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The daily chart for Spiders shows the Fibonacci retracements from the all-time high of $213.78 set on May 20 to the Jan. 20 low of $181.02.

Spiders ended last week at $203.12, down 0.4% year to date and 12.2% above the year-to-date low. The ETF is above its 61.8% retracement of $201.31 and the 200-day simple moving average at $201.80, which provided a buying opportunity at last week's low of $201.74. There is a downtrend resistance level of $208.55.

Investors looking to buy Spiders should consider doing so on weakness to $200.83, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of the week. Investors looking to reduce holdings should do so on strength to $214.63, which is a key level on technical charts for the remainder of March.

The PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) - Get Report .


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The daily chart for QQQs shows the Fibonacci retracements from the all-time high of $115.75 set on Dec. 2 to the Feb. 8 low of $97.25.

QQQ ended last week at $107.26, down 4.1% year to date and 10.3% above the year-to-date low. This ETF tried to move above its 61.8% retracement and its 200-day simple moving average, both at $107.78, but failed to hold those gains last week. Note that 2016 began with a price gap below the Dec. 31 low of $111.84, which is not likely to be filled anytime soon.

When you look at Spiders versus QQQs there is a notable tug of war, with Spiders above its 200-day at $201.80 and QQQ's below its 200-day of $107.78.

Investors looking to buy QQQ should consider doing so on weakness to $103.70, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of this week. Investors looking to reduce holdings should do so on strength to $107.69, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of March, and tested last week.

The iShares Transportation Average ETF (IYT) - Get Report .


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The daily chart for the transportation ETF shows the Fibonacci retracements from the all-time high of $167.80 set on Nov. 28, 2014 to the 2016 low of $114.91 set on Jan. 20.

The transports ETF ended last week at $142.06, up 5.4% year to date and 23.6% above its 2016 low, but still in correction territory 12.5% below the all-time high. The ETF is above its 200-day simple moving average of $140.65 and above its 50% retracement of $141.36, and below its 61.8% retracement of $147.60. Last week's low of $140.67 was between these key technical levels providing a short-term buying opportunity. Investors could have bought this ETF at last week's key level of $140.88.

Investors looking to buy the transportation ETF should consider doing so on weakness to $136.24, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of 2016. Investors looking to reduce holdings should do so on strength to $146.12, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of this week.

The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWN) - Get Report .


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The daily chart for the small cap ETF shows the Fibonacci retracements from the all-time high of $129.10 set on June 24 to the 2016 low of $94.64 set on Feb. 11. The small-cap ETF ended last week at $107.20, down 4.8% year to date and 13.3% above its 2016 low, but still in correction territory 17% below its all-time high. The ETF ended last week just above its 38.2% retracement of $107.17 after trading as low as $105.74. This ETF remains well below the price gap from the Dec. 31 low of $112.51, and well below its 200-day simple moving average of $113.74.

Investors looking to buy the small-cap ETF should consider doing so on weakness to $103.68, which is a key level on technical charts for the remainder of 2016. Investors looking to reduce holdings should do so on strength to the 200-day simple moving average of $113.74.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.