Munching on Bull Burgers

Contrarian's Delight

Just as some of telecom's beleaguered supporters were cheering Jack Grubman's "capitulation" on

WorldCom

(WCOM)

yesterday, some contrarians will be pleased to learn that Robert Robbins has been relieved of his position as chief investment strategist at SunTrust Robinson Humprhey.

"I can confirm Bob's departure as part of an ongoing revaluation of our staffing configuration based on business demands and meeting the needs of our customers," said a SunTrust Robinson Humphrey spokesman.

The spokesman declined to comment further on Robbins' termination, or on reports that Tim Snavely, a technician, is going to replace Robbins as the firm's strategist.

Still, other sources at Robinson Humphrey suggested that Robbins was the victim of his stubborn bullishness.

"When you let the pendulum swing so far, it's difficult to come back from that," one SunTrust employee said, referring to Robbins' fondness for using the term "super bull" to describe the investing environment.

Whatever the reason for Robbins' departure (and my thanks to

Real Money

colleague Chris Edmonds for bringing it to my attention), contrarians may see it as proof that reason is finally replacing hope on Wall Street. Perversely, some believe that when longtime bulls are sent to pasture, maybe it's a signal the stock market can finally blossom again.

Certainly, nothing in the past two years seemed to dissuade Robbins from his optimistic view, even though the market has been anything but super or bullish.

In his last "major" strategy piece on March 21, Robbins forecast the

S&P 500

would soon "break through resistance" at 1175 on its way toward 1369 at midyear and 1540 by year-end. More tellingly, he wrote, "We expect the S&P to double over the next five years."

The strategist has long maintained a recommended weighting for "balanced" portfolios of 80% stocks, 15% long-term bonds and 5% cash.

Nevertheless, Robbins said he was the victim of cost-cutting efforts at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, rather than his own performance.

"The firm has redirected itself toward institutions solely and away from retail, and when

the retail sales force went away, my greatest following went away," he said in an interview with the Taskmaster today. "With retail gone, I was a pretty big nut for them on the cost side."

In May 2001,

SunTrust Banks

(STI) - Get Report

acquired Robinson Humphrey's institutional business from

Citigroup's

(C) - Get Report

Salomon Smith Barney unit. Robinson Humphrey's retail client business -- along with municipal banking, sales and trading operations -- had been previously integrated into Salomon and were not included in the transaction.

Robbins also defended his track record, suggesting his model portfolio had a "tremendous" performance. That he'd been too bullish "hasn't been suggested and didn't occur to me," he said, noting that Robinson Humphrey is oriented toward mid-cap and second-tier stocks. "I've been telling people that's the place to be for the last year, and it has been."

Certainly it's possible Robbins' individual stock picks have outshone his wrongheaded macro market calls. But he declined to publicly reveal specific performance figures, noting they had not been audited. Furthermore, a quick review of his recent picks showed a mixed performance.

Progressive

(PGR) - Get Report

, was up 7% heading into today since a March 20 buy recommendation, and sell candidate

AOL Time Warner

(AOL)

was down 21%. Other buy candidates such as

Nike

(NKE) - Get Report

and

Merrill Lynch

(MER)

have underperformed the S&P 500's 4% drop since March 20.

On April 5 he forecast a "short-term" pullback in energy stocks that have performed solidly since; still, major oil firms were lower today in concert with

ExxonMobil

(XOM) - Get Report

, down 1.3% after posting weaker-than-expected results.

The strategist's other recent calls included a downgrade of health care to underweight on April 12.

Going forward, Robbins will have the opportunity to put his stock-picking prowess on the line as he plans to focus on Eagle Investment Association, a small hedge fund he has run for some time.

Of that "fledgling effort" he more candidly discussed performance than he did regarding his erstwhile day job: "It's been crushed" in the last 18 months, Robbins admitted. "We got too bullish much too soon and suffered a lot. We're considering trying to get risk-reduced."

Despite his protestations, Robbins' job as the firm's strategist was likely imperiled by the same.

Cautionary Tale

Even at the height of the bull market, Robbins never had the cachet enjoyed by Goldman Sachs' Abby Cohen or Credit Suisse First Boston's Tom Galvin, among other notably bullish strategists. So I don't want to make too much of SunTrust's decision to cut the strategist loose.

Still, it's a hopeful sign that two-plus years after the bull market ended some measure of accountability is coming to those who weren't able to adjust to the market's changing winds. Some will optimistically say that when Wall Street puts the bulls on a platter, then the market must be near a bottom.

Then again, the same hopes were raised when Merrill Lynch parted ways with the oft-optimistic Christine Callies late last year.

Aaron L. Task writes daily for TheStreet.com. In keeping with TSC's editorial policy, he doesn't own or short individual stocks, although he owns stock in TheStreet.com. He also doesn't invest in hedge funds or other private investment partnerships. He invites you to send your feedback to

Aaron L. Task.