NEW YORK (
) -- The markets are rising on Tuesday, but that doesn't mean Mr.
, Jim Miekka, has changed his tune about exiting the markets ahead of a big dip.
In comments provided by Miekka to the
Wall Street Journal
for an article on Saturday, August 14 -- as the Hindenburg Omen ascended to its 15 minutes of market fame -- the creator of the Hindenburg Omen did not sound as alarmist as his Omen might have suggested. The technical analyst told the
he was "dancing close to the door,' but not running for the exits.
Yet in the latest issue of Miekka's
Sudbury Bull & Bear Report
, a copy of which was provided to
and which was published two days after his interview with the WSJ, the headline is, "Our traffic light has changed to red, so you should exit the market."
that it's not just the Hindenburg Omen, but several trends converging alongside the Hindenburg trigger, that suggest there will be a better buying opportunity for investors later on. A better buying opportunity for investors "later on" doesn't mean too long, though.
For investors skeptical of Miekka's Hindenburg Omen, there will probably be a healthy dose of skepticism about the other negative indicators to which Miekka pointed in calling for investors to exit the market. Miekka's market bearishness is not just about German airships, but Presidential cycles and seasonality inherent in market doldrums.
Mr. Hindenburg Omen cited the mid-point of the presidential election cycle and September being the worst month of the market statistically as supporting evidence for a correction, now that the Hindenburg Omen has been signaled.
"If you look at the presidential cycle history and line up the lowest points in the market, they all occur in the fall," Miekka said. Miekka cited market performance of 1982, 1990, 1994, 1998 and 2002. "We're coming down to the best buying opportunity. The Hindenburg Omen occurring in mid-August and presenting a 30 day trading window puts it right in line with the Presidential low point," Mr. Hindenburg Omen added.
Incidentally, Gallup just released its latest poll on President Obama's approval rating showing that the President's numbers had slipped to an all-time low.
Miekka says that talk of a stock market crash remains hyperbolic, unless another Hindenburg Omen trigger occurs in the next 30 trading days. However, even lacking another Hindenburg Omen event, he thinks a correction as large as 20% is a likely scenario, and should signal to investors that there will be a better buying opportunity after the fall dip.
Miekka says that reviewing the historical data, it's always better to buy in mid- to late-November after the Presidential cycle mid-point and then hold equities until the January rally period two years later. Miekka says that this holding period generates an average return of 20% on the broad markets, or 60% on the Nasdaq.
The one technical indicator that is defying Miekka's bearishness is the McClellan Summation Index. It's not to be confused with the McClellan Oscillator, the short-term indicator of the ratio of NYSE advancing issues as compared to declining issues. The McClellan Summation Index, more or less the long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator, remains at high levels and Miekka said this might insulate market for a few weeks and stocks may be range-bound until September.
Miekka thinks that a decline in the McClellan Summation Index below 1800 - it is currently above 3,000 -- could place the steepest part of the Hindenburg Omen-predicted decline sometime in September.
"I've gotten out of the market. Since I've published so much on the Hindenburg Omen, I decided to follow my own advice and play it safe," Mr. Hindenburg Omen said.
-- Written by Eric Rosenbaum from New York.
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