Another day, another day of pain in the bond market. Today was particularly aggravating because it looked like we were going to have a rally. We were up 11 ticks at one point, which was like the phone going off next to the electric chair. Wrong number; no governor, except a negative
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You have to understand how confounding this market is to people who have been around more than a couple of years. You have to recognize that when the bonds collapsed from their wee little rally, we figured it would have some residual effect. Where there is smoke, there is usually fire, except in 1999.
Instead, when they reversed, nothing happened. Nothing.
Many of us figured that there might be some sort of feeble year-end rally in Treasuries, so this was especially painful -- especially when stocks fell and then came roaring back. So much for the 1990 and 1994 scenarios or even the 1996
pullback when bonds collapsed.
So we leave the office shaking our heads at the irrelevance of a market that once called the shots. We puzzle, once again, what chain of events will eventually take the
down. And we debate the relevance of paying for real-time bond futures.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund was long the 30-year Treasury bond. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at