Could the bulls be dominant? It is starting to feel like a Yankees kind of thing, or maybe a Steelers in the '70s or the Michael Jordan-led Bulls.
Right now, as I write, I am on a
conference call, which is as good as it gets -- although monotonic in execution -- despite rumors of a shortfall last Friday. (Bad call, brokers!) This was one of those quarters where people congratulated the team, so different from a year ago when these guys were the goat of the game. I suspect the same for
, which just reported. (Boy, these banks look strong in the face of a somewhat inhospitable yield curve. That shows the earning stream here is heavily fee-based.)
Meanwhile, terrific earnings keep streaming over the tape. There's what looks to be a strong
number. And the bonds seem to be in an orb of their own. You don't hear much about the bond bear market anymore.
Guess we have to bring back David Jones from
to find out what's really wrong.
Money, the elixir of the bull, keeps pouring in. And I detected a pickup in pessimism by the end of last week, as I was hit by a bunch of emails blasting me for being complacently long. Barton Biggs at
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter
is out blabbing about an '87-like event: That ought to get the ursine juices going. Another Kodiak moment from the grump. And
is out piling on
on the Lernahooligan thing, or whatever he calls it.
The only honest-to-Betsy bear case on the horizon is the plethora of new issues. You can't have this level of underwriting be maintained without overwhelming the market eventually. But right now we are still in the up phase where people are scrambling to get stock.
Once again, we will be battling one another to get long when this market opens.
You want more options -- you will get more options. People want me to write about these topics so I will. Here's a bone to pick. I
mentioned Friday that I exercised some in-the-money calls. A couple of people wrote in to point out that option theory says you should sell them and buy common, that it is somehow better and cheaper. This kind of by-the-closed-book thinking is typical of the academics who have never made 10 cents in the market. You exercise calls that finish in the money if you think the market is going higher. I don't give a darn what the
Black and Scholes
-types or the
business-school profs say.
Let them come work at a real desk and find out how money is made and lost in real life. They haven't a clue. ... Still trying to regain my hearing after taking my eldest to an
concert last night at the
PNC Arts Center
. All that renaming of the Garden State Arts Center has done is make me recall what a good short
always is around earnings!
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund had no positions in any stocks mentioned. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at