Inventories for paper and wood didn't fall big. What's the big deal?

If that's the question you are thinking, you haven't seen enough soft-landing scenarios.

It is a big deal

.

When the economy is as strong as it has been, the bulls begin to grasp on anything. The most sensitive number out there is inventory of heavy-duty paper and paper-related products. You want to see a low inventory number if you are a producer. Low inventory means good news for cyclicals. High inventories? Bad for cyclicals. We had a bad-for-cyclicals number this morning. If this piece were part of a cyclicals clinic, I would say, "From this number, the economy is slowing, so shift into growth stocks and

The Stocks Everybody Loves."

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Get used to hearing the phrase "soft landing." I heard it for about 3,000

Dow

points after 1989, and another 3,000 points after 1992.

I can't believe I am the first to use it this time.

Makes me proud.

James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund had no positions in any stocks mentioned. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at

jjcletters@thestreet.com.