Last week was relatively strong for stocks and commodities. Although the
closed slightly lower on the week the price action Friday was strong. The recent pop in commodities has everyone feeling good and bullish again and we all know how the market works -- when everyone is feeling good the market has a way of shaking things up.
Here are a few charts showing heavy volume resistance levels that most likely will cause the broad market and commodities to pull back or trade sideways for a few days as buyers and sellers play tug-of-war.
Silver Bullion ETF Trading
had a very nice pop last week. But if you step back and look at the recent price action you can see that it's still trading below the previous major bounce from back in June. It looks as though silver is a little overextended as large percentage moves tend to give back 25%-50% of the mover shortly after.
Take a look at the price by volume bar. It shows there has been heavy volume traded at that $19 level; the previous time it was reached sellers stepped back in pulling silver down.
Gold Bullion ETF Trading
is trading deep into the resistance level and struggling to hold up. Last week we went long GLD after the bullish engulfing candle and took profits near the high two days later on Thursday's price. Although gold is trading at resistance the intraday price action remains somewhat bullish to neutral for the time being.
Oil ETF Trading
The oil ETF,
United States Oil Fund
, broke down from its large multi-month bear flag and is now bouncing up to test that breakdown/resistance level. This could be a possible kiss good-bye. I will keep my eye on this commodity as it could provide us with a great shorting opportunity in the coming days.
S&P ETF Trading
While the chart looks strong, the market internals are telling me the opposite. Last week we saw a gap down and Friday that gap window was filled. With heavy volume resistance just above the current price the odds are pointing to lower prices.
It looks as though everything is trading just under or at resistance levels. That means sellers will start to enter the market and cause prices to stall (trade sideways/choppy) or reverse lower.
That being said, with Friday's strong close for oil and the S&P 500, I am expecting a gap higher in the morning because traders will review those charts this weekend and enter the market Monday feeling bullish.
Chris Vermeulen is founder of the popular trading sites www.thegoldandoilguy.com and www.ActiveTradingPartners.com. There he shares his highly successful, low-risk trading method. Since 2001, Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade in gold, silver, oil and stocks in both bull and bear markets.