Helene Meisler, Jim Cramer's favorite technician, writes a daily column for RealMoney in addition to her Top Stocks newsletter. This column was originally published on RealMoney at 6:59 a.m. EDT on Monday, June 1.
I think Friday's late-afternoon surge was about as bogus as a late-afternoon decline is. But it sure seemed to make folks upset. And we can all search for a reason as to what transpired to make it that way. But in the end, wouldn't that be rationalizing an indicator? The market surged, on volume.
Keep in mind my column from Friday in which I wrote that there seems to be this growing consensus that we're in a
. No one realized it two weeks ago. But now that we've been in it for a month it's obvious to everyone. So everyone buys the lows and sells the highs. Therefore, we know there is a high probability we won't stay in the trading range much longer.
So wouldn't it make sense for the market to really annoy the most folks by breaking out to the upside, causing everyone to shut up about the trading range, acknowledge the breakout, and get bullish? And then come right back down?
According to the overbought/oversold oscillator we'll be overbought Tuesday, which gives us time to have the early-in-the-month rally that potentially breaks out now.
And why do I believe it would be a false breakout? Well, the International Securities Exchange's equity call/put ratio was 237% on Friday. That is quite high. A previous reading that was so high was on May 5. You might recall we had our peak on May 8.
The chart below shows spikes of 225% or more for the past two years. I have circled them. The chart below that has corresponding circles on the
So let's say we do rally Monday and/or Tuesday and we break out to the upside of this trading range in the process. I suspect we will not see cries of "trading range" anymore. Instead, "breakout" will be the word of the day. If that is the case, I'm going to hazard a guess we'd see the Index put/call ratio dip under 100% pretty quickly. Maybe we'd even see the equity put/call ratio fall into the 50s again. That would be the sign that it was a false breakout.
There are those who believe staying in the trading range will upset and frustrate the most folks. I think a breakout that fails would upset and frustrate a whole lot more.
Whether or not Friday was based on mark-ups or not, I find it hard to believe we won't get one up day early in the month. It's a rare event if we don't see an up day in the early days of a new month. I think if we do see one, and if it breaks out, we will see giddiness instead of grumpiness in the market.
At the time of publication, Meisler had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.
Helene Meisler writes a daily technical analysis column and TheStreet.com Top Stocks. For more information,
. Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and SG Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback;
to send her an email.