Stocks soared on Wednesday after the release of the October Federal Reserve minutes.
The DJIA gained 247 points to close at 17,737 and the S&P 500 gained 33 points to finish at 2,083. The Nasdaq gained 89 points to close at 5,075 while the Russell 2000 was higher by 18.53 to finish at 1,172.
The huge market move to the upside can be attributed to a couple of statements that were buried within the statement. While most Wall Street economists and pundits have already accepted an interest rate increase at the December meeting, it's not a done deal. As a matter of fact, I believe there will be no rate increase.
Several participants indicated that, despite lessening concerns about the implications of recent global economic and financial developments for domestic economic activity and inflation, appreciable downside risks to the outlook remained. They were concerned about a "potential loss of momentum in the economy and the associated possibility that inflation might fail to increase as expected. Such concerns might suggest that the initiation of the normalization process may not yet be warranted."
In addition, the members emphasized that the actual decision "would depend on the implications for the medium-term economic outlook of the data received over the upcoming intermeeting period." Some others, however, "judged it unlikely that the information available by the December meeting would warrant raising the target range for the federal funds rate at that meeting."
Thus, it would appear to me that there will be no rate increase in December -- and the stock market came to the same conclusion on Wednesday.
One asset class that may be a huge beneficiary of the no rate increase is Gold. Gold has been crushed to the downside with the strong dollar in anticipation of a rate hike. With no rate hike, it would appear that the dollar should move lower and Gold should move higher. Attached is daily chart of the SPDR Gold Trust, showing an oversold condition with a positive daily divergence in the third quadrant.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.