NEW YORK (
) -- Just one last trading session left in 2011, then investors can sit back and let the
take over until it's time to
sell in May and go away
Ah, the joys of market cliches! If only it were that simple. Think of all the volatility that would have been missed ... the higher highs, the lower lows! All that only to end up with the broadest measure of U.S. stocks -- the
-- virtually unchanged from where it sat a year ago.
A quick rundown of the major U.S. equity indices finds the
Dow Jones Industrial Average
sitting pretty ahead of the final opening bell of the year. Thanks to Thursday's rally, blue-chip index is up 6.13% for 2011, far outpacing both the S&P 500, up .43% on a price basis, and the
, which is down 1.48% after falling out of correlation with its brethren following
So there is something rather important at stake on Friday, whether
or not the S&P 500 will put 2011 in the books as an up or down year
Put well-known investor Dennis Gartman, who produces daily market commentary, in the bull camp.
"Something clearly is going on here in the US that far too few investors are prepared to accept, but corporate America has done wonders with its balance sheet; has kept its work force 'lean and mean;' has worked inventories down to bare minimums; is attuned to paying out larger dividends than in the past and is generally fiscally more responsible," Gartman wrote early Friday. "A break upward through 1260-1265 in the S&P would be most impressive indeed. We expect it to happen... sooner rather than later."
Retail investors are evidently feeling pretty good as well. The latest survey of the American Association of Individual Investors shows a sharp upswing in bullishness. The organization, which has more than 150,000 members, takes a poll each week asking how they feel about the direction of the S&P 500 over the next six months.
For the week ended Dec. 28, the ranks of the bulls swelled to 40.6%, a sequential increase of 6.9 percentage points and slightly above a long-term average of 39%. The percentage of those feeling bearish rose as well though, reaching 30.8% after tacking on 2.6 points. The neutral camp, which was at multi-year highs last week, dropped 9.4 points to 28.6%, falling below its long-term average of 31%.
Heading into Friday's session, the
Santa Claus rally has been a bit sluggish but it's still intact
with the S&P 500, which has risen 75% of the time over the past 40 or so years in the span bridging the Christmas and New Years Day holidays, up 0.72% since closing at 1254 on Dec. 22. The average gain is 1.6%.
The scheduled news is unsurprisingly light with the economic calendar clear, and no notable earnings reports expected.
could come under even more pressure though after
to 'CCC' from 'B' and said the outlook is negative.
"Liquidity is expected to remain adequate to fund 2012 working capital needs given current availability under the company's U.S. and Canadian facilities," the ratings agency said. "However, Sears may need to access external sources of financing to fund operations in 2013 and beyond, as the magnitude of the decline in profitability and lack of visibility to turn operations around remain a major concern."
, the parent company of American Airlines, will also be in focus after the New York Stock Exchange said late Thursday it plans to delist the bankrupt airline's common stock and certain debt instruments. Trading on the Big Board will be suspended as of Jan. 5, and the company said it expects the stock to move to the Pink Sheets.
Written by Michael Baron in New York.
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