For traders this 4620 level on the Nasdaq Comp seems to mean something, first as a ceiling and now as a floor. On days like today I turn technician only because, when we hit levels like down 10%, I get turned on by retracements and resistance levels.
No doubt, when chaos rules in individual stocks we tend to rely on other benchmarks about the overall market. If the Nasdaq has held down 10% before, it may do it again. If this 4620 level on the Nasdaq was resistance, now it is support. Is that a reverse head-and-shoulders pattern in the Comp? Or am I just looking at random lines? The
, which was down big, rallied back to even for a moment. Is that a positive tell? Or is that just
I used to think this was all a big pile of mumbo jumbo. But what I have learned is that, if some people think something is important in the market, even if you don't believe in it, you have to pay attention.
On an individual stock front we continue to think the ultimate tell is
. We just got the certifiable good news. If it can rally from these levels -- and there are plenty of options that expire at the 80 level that say it won't happen -- this market will have a much better chance of holding than if Oracle reverts to being flat for the day, as it was in the most ugly moments of the
Oracle, 200-day, resistance, support,
earnings -- these are all pieces of the puzzle.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund was long Intel and Oracle. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at