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There's always a bullish scenario. This one, though, only has one trigger: oil has to come down a tad, it just has to. Or else we have chaos.

Interestingly we have had a pretty darned good market while oil has doubled.

But that ends if we go right to $150. There's just no way we can handle that speed, that velocity.

Yet, I am worried because all I hear about, once again, is that speculators are driving it up. Believe me, this is not the silver market of the early 1980s. Speculators don't have that kind of power. Somewhere there has to be a producer out there who can take advantage of the speculator-driven price and flood the market.

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Except there isn't. No country has withheld production. No country has a spare 400,000 barrels to turn on. Nobody has capacity to take advantage of these prices. If they did, they wouldn't exist, the prices would have been pricked already. Dozens of times.

In fact, this is a moment of remarkable


in oil.

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So we wait, and watch the market go down until oil has a price break. Because there is no way you can mount a serious rally with these price increases.

Only a serious selloff.

Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of He contributes daily market commentary for's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for and, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for

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