People worry about numbers. Look at your screen: The stocks with estimates that may be too high in tech are all teetering with every sell program.
Ah, but the financials and the consumers? They don't sweat the programs! That's what I want to be in: the companies that won't blow the quarter, that won't preannounce. Take the brokers and the banks, two groups I love. I think numbers are probably too LOW for those groups, and I think that the slight bump in rates will be a godsend for the group. (I believe we need some slope in the yield curve.) We are already seeing a cessation in mortgage refinances, which have played havoc with the earnings of many of these companies.
In the meantime, having to call every tick on these personal computer stocks will just drive you crazy. Nobody knows about the numbers of these companies. They are in flux.
Remember, I don't want to ride things down and get crushed, a la
(and it is so amazing that people were all over me this morning for pooh-poohing COMS -- good luck there!) I want to ride up and get rewarded a la
Oh, and one other thing. The tech mail is filled with hatred for me. How silly! If you think I am wrong, beat me at my own game! Take the other side of the trade. No malice toward you because I want everyone to make money. I wouldn't be doing this if I didn't believe that someone else should be making money besides me.
The talking heads are scaring everybody about the number tomorrow. When everyone is scared, I want the other side of the trade, and I am indeed long U.S. bonds.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At the time of publication, his fund was long Citigroup and the 30-year Treasury bond, though positions may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column by sending an email to firstname.lastname@example.org.