This column was originally published on RealMoney on March 1 at 12:51 p.m. EST. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers.
You know it is not supposed to happen this way in tech. In the old days, you bought tech and sold it into the Goldman Sachs conference. At my old hedge fund, we used to keep a chart of how much more money you would have made if you had sold instead of bought. I sense that those who are short
are feeling the pain that comes from having bet on a pattern when the pattern has changed.
The pattern, as well
described by Bob Marcin, is one of very steady flows out of oil and into tech. It's being helped by the fact that savvy tech people know that the first quarter's supposed to be bad, yet the CEOs are being ebullient. They can't talk numbers, they can't talk anything substance, so it is all handjive and smiles -- thanks, Reg FD! You've turned our game into the equivalent of how mobsters communicate when they know they are being bugged! Love it!
Still, though, it is a bountiful time for tech, courtesy of all the gadgets -- there I go again -- and I believe the gadgets now include Cisco because Cisco makes set-top boxes. For once Cisco is not a concept stock, meaning that it makes stuff that nobody buys or sees because it is all in some closet somewhere. I can't stress how much that might matter to the more thick-headed portfolio managers out there.
I say, stick with gadgets. I am well aware that everyone believes
is at last ready to run, but believe me, if you believe that, then you really should be buying the stocks that are levered to
, and Intel is way too indirect. Am I being inconsistent about Cisco? Not really; Cisco is a company in transition and Intel isn't.
So be it.
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