Flat- market share in laser printers and a more-than-expected decline in laser cartridge pricing could drag down
stock by 7%.
Laser printers and cartridges together account for close to 80% of Lexmark's stock price, which makes the stock very sensitive to Lexmark laser printer market share and Lexmark laser cartridge pricing.
Trefis members have created forecasts for the above key drivers of Lexmark's stock over the last week, and their forecasts suggest that the drivers will trend roughly in line with the estimates of the in-house team of analysts at Trefis.
Lexmark competes with
in the printers and cartridges market. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $40 for Lexmark's stock, about 13% above the current market price of $35.
Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.
On average, Trefis members forecast a flat Lexmark laser printer market share of 3.6% over the Trefis forecast period compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from 3.7% in 2010 to 4% by 2016.
The member estimates imply a downside of 6% to the Trefis price estimate for Lexmark's stock. In the past, Lexmark laser printer market share has decreased from around 10% in 2004 to 3.4% in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Lexmark's stock to Lexmark laser printer market share.
The average of Trefis member forecasts for Lexmark laser cartridge pricing indicate a decrease from around $183 in 2010 to $143 by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of a decrease from $184 in 2010 to $147 by the end of the Trefis forecast period.
The member estimates imply a downside of 1% to the Trefis price estimate for Lexmark's stock. In the past, Lexmark laser cartridge pricing has decreased from $250 in 2004 to $192 in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Lexmark's stock to Lexmark laser cartridge pricing.
Our complete analysis for Lexmark's stock is
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