This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on Nov. 4 at 7:10 a.m. EST.
I have a variant view, as I look toward a different (and more salutary) market outcome than is generally expected following a Democratic win. In essence, there could now be such broad-based dissatisfaction with the current lack of leadership and poor decisions by the Bush Administration that investors could greet a Democratic win as setting a new stage of leadership capable of reversing the current view that U.S. economic and political preeminence is on the decline. Decisive, creative and coherent moves by a newly elected Democratic Administration could further engage investors in 2009.In summary, a Democratic victory will underscore the seriousness of the economic challenges (both here and abroad) and I expect investors, perhaps surprisingly, to respond in kind -- with optimism.-- Doug Kass, " Obama the Street Cleaner We Need" (Oct. 27, 2008)
Last week, I wrote that voters are now clamoring for change and that the November contest will likely result in a Democratic Tsunami, bringing with it the potential for a surprisingly positive stock market response.
Based on the sharp ramp in futures and the market action so far this morning, we now appear to be witnessing the beginning of the anticipated "Obama Bounce."
Nevertheless, for many of the reasons expressed in yesterday's column, "
," the investment and economic outlook appears clouded as we enter 2009, and I plan to slowly expand my investment (not rental!) short book should the Obama Bounce transform into the Obama Rally. Tactically, given the magnitude of September and October's losses, I don't plan to lean into a ramp aggressively as I want to give the market's advance sufficient berth.
My baseline expectation is that the equity market assumes a rather wide trading range over the next few months, providing an exquisite trading environment but a not-so-exquisite investing backdrop, which is bound to frustrate many investors who are impatiently trying to recoup 2008's losses.
Doug Kass writes daily for
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Doug Kass is founder and president of Seabreeze Partners Management, Inc., and the general partner and investment manager of Seabreeze Partners Short LP and Seabreeze Partners Short Offshore Fund, Ltd.