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This blog post originally appeared on
on March 6 at 9:56 a.m. EST.
On Monday night, I
" that the stock market could be within three days of making a 2009 bottom.
As yesterday was the third day, my forecast is now on the line.
I am not hiding from my bottom call. If anything, I feel even better today than I did on Monday evening with Sir Larry Kudlow that my expectation might prove to be accurate, particularly in the current backdrop of attractive valuations and an extremely negative sentiment reading, or, as I describe, "
." Most important, there are initial signs that several elements on my checklist are turning more positive.
Not surprisingly, many investors suffering wealth destruction from the downward spiral in stock prices have grown increasingly impatient. They want instant satisfaction from Mr. Market, but, as
Helene Meisler often reminds us, tops are umbrellas and bottoms are saucers.
I see the bottoming process as commencing now.
Today, the jobs numbers' prior-month revisions confirmed what we all know; the employment picture is poor. The newly minted permabear media -- they were permabulls for years! -- are dwelling on the weak release but are failing, in my view, to recognize that it's how markets respond to bad news that is often more important than the news itself. So stay tuned!
I addressed the significance of the market as a discounting mechanism in my "
" column recently. Indeed, how stocks behave in the face of dire fundamentals is one of the primary points on my checklist for a market rise. On Wednesday night's, "The Kudlow Report," I
a positive market reaction to weak
earnings as a positive signal that the market might have discounted the current chaos.
It is for the above reasons (and others) that I remain optimistic that an important bottom in the U.S. stock market is being put in.
Doug Kass writes daily for
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At the time of publication, Kass and/or his funds had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.
Doug Kass is founder and president of Seabreeze Partners Management, Inc., and the general partner and investment manager of Seabreeze Partners Short LP and Seabreeze Partners Long/Short LP.