This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on June 2 at 7:51 a.m. EDT.
Money makes the world go around, especially in the world of equities.
The plain truth is that most investors, under the guise of being fundamental investors, worship at the altar of price momentum and rarely take a variant market view. Rather, most individual and institutional investors simply prefer buying strength and selling weakness. This helps to explain the overshoot to the upside in the summer of 2008 and the overshoot to the downside in early March, when there was
of green shoots taking root and economic stabilization taking hold.
While the media talks green shoots, the recent leg up in U.S. equities seems to be based more on demand for stocks overwhelming supply rather than substantive signs of emerging worldwide economic growth.
As have previously
, the carnage in fixed income -- the long bond was down another three points yesterday -- has accelerated the reallocation of pension plans out of bonds, where they are currently skewed, and into equities.
The second derivative rally is getting fully extended now as money has overwhelmed the markets.
While money makes the world go 'round,
Unlike the many observers who now are following stocks higher and upping their
target forecasts, I believe that the next 50 points in the S&P will be down, not up, as the
come to the fore.
Doug Kass writes daily for
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Know what you own: Some of the most active stocks in Tuesday's mid-morning trading include Bank of America (BAC) - Get Bank of America Corp Report, Citigroup (C) - Get Citigroup Inc. Report, SPDRs (SPY) - Get SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Report, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ) - Get Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares Report, Financial Select Sector SPDRs (XLF) - Get Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund Report, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) - Get JPMorgan Chase & Co. Report and Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) - Get Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares Report.
At the time of publication, Kass and/or his funds had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.
Doug Kass is founder and president of Seabreeze Partners Management, Inc., and the general partner and investment manager of Seabreeze Partners Short LP and Seabreeze Partners Long/Short LP.