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This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on Oct. 15 at 10:44 a.m. EDT.



is over Tampa Bay, not Wall Street, these days!

That being said, I often turn to historical patterns in an attempt to make market parallels.

On the positive side, a parallel between the July 2002 bottom and October 2008 could be in the offing.

Below are the charts.

S&P 500 July 2002

Click here for larger image.

Source: WONDA

S&P 500 October 2008

Click here for larger image.

Source: WONDA

S&P 500 Rest of 2002

Click here for larger image.

Source: WONDA

I am rooted in fundamental analysis, so I tend to treat tech signals with a grain of skepticism, but occasionally they produce worthwhile parallels. For instance, the move off of the July 2002 low started with a huge up day (similar to Monday, Oct. 13, 2008), and the next day had a strong opening but a close down in the middle of its daily trading range (similar to Tuesday, Oct. 14, 2008). Then, on the fourth day off the 2002 bottom, the market began a sustained advance (tomorrow, Oct. 16, 2008?).

If the 2002/2008 analogy holds, we could see a move in the

S&P 500

to between 1,150 and 1,200 by mid November. (Most retracements from this sort of graph seem to move in that magnitude and take four to five weeks.)

Ace trader The Big A (for Aaron!) at Bass Trading reminds me that the volume characteristics are (thus far) similar, as well.

Doug Kass writes daily for

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Doug Kass is founder and president of Seabreeze Partners Management, Inc., and the general partner and investment manager of Seabreeze Partners Short LP and Seabreeze Partners Short Offshore Fund, Ltd.