This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on Dec. 16 at 7:22 a.m. EST.
While reversals in economic series are not unusual (even during recoveries), the weight of the economic evidence continues to be below consensus expectations and indicative of a more tentative recovery than most have accepted as consensus.
- Core PPI was up 0.5% (vs. an expectation of up 0.2%), and the rate of price inflation is increasing (especially of a pipeline kind).
- The rate of growth in manufacturing activity appears to be moderating, with a broad-based drop in the Empire State PMI this morning.
- The NAHB survey of homebuilder confidence has now declined for three months in a row.
- Foreign flows into U.S. financial assets have disappointed (at only $21 billion vs. a $37 billion estimate) as our currency depreciates.
investment world of December, during which fundamentals seem to be losing their import, I once again woke up to much higher futures. This has become a routine occurrence these days!
To paraphrase Elaine in Seinfeld: The U.S. stock market is reliable. It's considerate. Doug, it's your exact opposite!
During this momentum-based month, I suppose, to paraphrase Kramer: You know what they say, "You don't sell the steak; you sell the sizzle."
Doug Kass writes daily for
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At the time of publication, Kass and/or his funds had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.
Doug Kass is the general partner Seabreeze Partners Long/Short LP and Seabreeze Partners Long/Short Offshore LP. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.