Jim Seymour Chats on Yahoo!

Seymour chats about AMD, Dell, Amazon, Y2K and more.
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Jim Seymour chatted on Yahoo! on Tuesday, Aug. 10 at 5 p.m. Seymour's screen name for this chat is TechSavvyTSC. As with all chats, this transcript is unedited.

lpoynter_98:

Hello Everyone, Welcome to Yahoo! Chat.

lpoynter_98:

Jim is here and we are ready to go.

paramount2 asks:

Jim, enjoy your writings at TSC. Your thoughts in regards to I2 Technologies. Their business model and management seem superb. What do you see for them and their stock?

TechSavvyTSC:

I think i2 is a strong company. They made a good acq in picking up Smart. I expect to see them roar back. And no, I'm not long!

dcraze asks:

Intel comes out with Merced next year. Will AMD launch a 64 bit processor and when?

TechSavvyTSC:

I don't expect to see AMD competing head-to-head w/ INTC in the 64-bit CPU mkt for some time. They're going to ride the K7 -- oops, Athlon! -- as long as they can.

dgarcia801 asks:

Hi jim, what do you think of rbak, qwest,and athm at these levels?

TechSavvyTSC:

I still like broadband very much as a medium-to-long-term investment. I'm wary of RBOCs, per se; I like QWST. ATHM looks high, still.

Coach_Four asks:

I own some of Dell and I am anxious to see the earnings come out. Last quarter earnings were met and the stock went down because they actually thought it would be over. So is Dell the

Tom Hanks

of stocks. Does it have to do better than estimated to go up. What are the earnings looking like this quarter and do you think it will go up after the earnings and what do you think its short term is going to be.

TechSavvyTSC:

Dell is a classic victim of the New Expectations: no matter how well they do, they don't do well ENOUGH to satisfy some. I think Dell is nearly the only PC maker I'd want to be long right now.

dcraze asks:

When are you going to be on TSC's TV show?

TechSavvyTSC:

I *love* the

TheStreet.com

show, and expect to be on soon. Problem is, it requires a separate, expensive satellite feed to bring me in. Soon, soon.

theio69 asks:

Where do you recommend I invest online, when I went to E*Trade and a few others , they require a 1000 dollar minimum, where can I invest with maybe only $200. dollars when I start?

TechSavvyTSC:

I think that sub-$1K investors are better served by a savings account.

BullMarket_BearMarket asks:

Jim, I found your article about EDIG lacking journalistic responsibility...care to comment?

TechSavvyTSC:

I feel very good about the mentions I've made of EDIG. The message-board people didn't like what I said, of course, because they'd hoped I'd hype the stock. When I didn't, they got unhappy. It's that simple.

wester1969 asks:

Jim, What happened to AMAZON?

TechSavvyTSC:

Which way? I think AMZN is a killer-good investment for the long term, because of their choke-hold on so much of the best of e-commerce. But near-term, they'll continue to lose bucket fulls.

TechSavvyTSC:

My approach is to buy on weakness...and especially, when this correction in the dot-com's bottoms...which may not be soon.

dcraze asks:

Are you still positive on Aware and do you think it still is the leader in DSL?

TechSavvyTSC:

AWRE is still strong, and is still key to ADSL roll-out plans by the RBOCs. I don't *like* ADSL, but it's gonna be big.

dcraze asks:

Could you comment on the outlook for wireless broadband players like Advance Radio Telecom and Teligent?

TechSavvyTSC:

I'm high on ARTT. Wireless broadband is going to be a big hit -- once you've used it, everything else seems dumb! -- and the only issue here is timing!

franrv asks:

Did you know that edig has a lot more than just music going for it?

TechSavvyTSC:

EDIG has the potential for nice plays in VTT and TTV. My interest in them has been focused on their play in the digital downloadable music market.

vjunk123 asks:

Hi Mr. Seymour, what did you think of the EPAC demo today?

TechSavvyTSC:

I wasn't at the Javits IMX show, didn't hear/see the demo, and so can't comment; sorry.

Coach_Four asks:

I am interested in Disney. Do you think it is a good time to buy it for long term? It is pretty low right now.

TechSavvyTSC:

DIS has been low for a looooong time. I think it's 'way too early to buy DIS again. Maybe, post-

Eisner

, it'll be a good investment again.

issamdalloul asks:

Why is MCIWorldcom Stock down?

TechSavvyTSC:

Because of their announcement of a nickel-a-minute-nighttime package. The street is worried it will hurt earnings too much.

TechSavvyTSC:

For myself, I think WCOM is making EXACTLY the right strategic move here. They've emphasized business over residential customers long enough; this is a very encouraging turn.

wester1969 asks:

I work for Musicland's e-commerce branch and would like to get your thoughts on our entry into the online music market.. Good and Bad please.

TechSavvyTSC:

I think music retailers in general are going to have a tough road to hoe. Musicland may not find that its retail presence and experience are very valuable on the online-music epoch.

lyncha00 asks:

Now that AOL has used AIM to crawl into bed with ELNK and MSPG, what are your thoughts on consolidation among ISPs?

TechSavvyTSC:

AOL made a smart strategic move in these alliances. I think the real driver in ISP consolidation, though, is going to be the emerging dominance of a half-dozen major national ISPs.

TechSavvyTSC:

Roll-ups, as with Verio, haven't worked; alliances as with this one, may help.

walshcapitalman asks:

How can you say ATHM is high? It is 70% down.

TechSavvyTSC:

I think ATHM was waaaaaaaay too high, and has corrected. My answer was a guess at where they'll bottom, which I think is yet to come.

BullMarket_BearMarket asks:

Rgarding your article on EDIG, can you honestly say that you like MPPP's chances more so than a mega player like ucent, Edig, SanDisk ect?

TechSavvyTSC:

Never said that.

lyncha00 asks:

Everyone's talking about critical support levels being broached, what tech sectors do you see as being attractive at these levels? ASPs? Bandwith plays?

TechSavvyTSC:

None, yet. All are still coming down. Be patient.

wellbeing1000 asks:

What do you think of the Chinese company Legend Computers?

TechSavvyTSC:

They have a great market position in China, as Dell and others are finding, as they butt heads with them. But I don't think they're going to burst out of China with any success.

hawkeo60 asks:

Jim- I know that this is tough to answer, but, I have to ask- do you think that we are near a short term bottom in the market, especially in the Nasdaq.

TechSavvyTSC:

I never try to call absolute bottoms, which I consider a foof's game. I think we're getting pretty close, but that we're not there yet. Keep your cash handy, but I think it's too early to jump.

nixnux asks:

Hi Jim! Thanks for the great job your doing at TSC. Would you please comment on LVLT and the fact that it's been getting clocked lately.

TechSavvyTSC:

I think LVLT has inherited QWST's former position as the play of choice on bandwidth reselling. I think that will prove to be a huge mkt. (FD: I'm long QWST.)

tim072000 asks:

If the Fed does raise 1/4 pt. what will be the reaction in the markets, more selling or a releif rally?

TechSavvyTSC:

First, I think FOMC *will* go up a quarter of a point two weeks from today, unless the market in the meantime REALLY spirals down out of control.

TechSavvyTSC:

Second, I think the expectation of that move will have been so fully priced into the market by then that it won't have that much effect.

tamsin_93924 asks:

I opened an E*Trade account last week but was too late to offer on the Red Hat IPO. What is the next, best way to get into Red Hat, please?

TechSavvyTSC:

I think the chances of getting into Red Hat now are nil. No one I know has been able to get any.

EddieBerman asks:

Speaking of SanDisk - any thoughts on their business?

TechSavvyTSC:

I think Sandisk has a great market opportunity. I think especially the digital downloadable-music pocket-size players will use CompactFlash for storage.

TechSavvyTSC:

Others are in the CF mlkt, too, of course, but Sandisk is well-positioned.

usopenchamp asks:

What are the chances Linux goes the way of OS/2, Next, Dr. Dos?

TechSavvyTSC:

None whatsoever. Linux is not a flash in the pan, not a transient success. It's not going to knock over Novell and Msft and Sun, but it IS going to be enduringly important.

linda99712 asks:

Any comments on SGI? Any thought on their move to focus on Linux versus Windows NT?

TechSavvyTSC:

I have loved SGI for a long time, and have watched in pain as they've slipped. They got a GREAT CEO in

Rick Belluzzo

, but I question whether even so good a manager can pull SGI out. Today's re-organization makes sense...but will it be enough? I'm very skeptical, unfortunately.

kjmwine asks:

I'm late getting into the room, but can you summarize the y2k impact on the market between now and end of year?

TechSavvyTSC:

Y2K worries will still dog sales of the box-makers, the enterprise-sw people, and to a certain extent, MSFT. Until we're well into 2000 -- say, Q2 and beyond -- Y2K will continue to drag everything down.

bobkemp1 asks:

What groups seem the most oversold, when a bounce does come?

TechSavvyTSC:

The obvious answer is the dot-coms. They'll come back, because they ARE oversold...but don't look for the old levels soon.

CABob39 asks:

Are CPQ's problems behind them and what do you see for their future?

TechSavvyTSC:

Compaq still has mountains to climb. The current re-organization is half-hearted, I believe/fear, and won't be enough. This is reorganization-interruptus, and unless CPQ can push even futher down the direct path, they won't outgrow their current problems.

raincoaster99 asks:

What do you think will be the long-term effect on Mr. Softee of these new OS challenges will be?

TechSavvyTSC:

I think MSFT WinNT (or Windows 2000, now...) will still be the dominant business OS -- but Linux will effectively cap the size of W2000's success.

unkadoug asks:

With shopping-bots scanning the net for bargains, will e-commerce become a low-margin, low-profit business? Or will brand names (e.g. Amazon) still win?

TechSavvyTSC:

I think shopping 'bots WILL push hard on the Web to force sellers into low-price competition...but strong brands, such as AMZN, Gap, etc., will become profitable.

usopenchamp asks:

Will Linux dent Unix more than Windows?

TechSavvyTSC:

I think of Linux as PART of the Unix world...but if you mean will Linux steal sales from Solaris, AIX, etc., yeah, you bet!

DBF863 asks:

Will EMC remain dominant in their field with the acquisition of Data General and IBM getting back into the storage business.

TechSavvyTSC:

I'm very, very high on EMC. Watch for a column on the EMC-DG deal...but in general, EMC needs to increase share and capacity fast, and this was smart.

TechSavvyTSC:

CPQ, of course, is a big leader (thanks to the DEC deal) in selling storage...and yep, IBM will be important.

devilray33770 asks:

When this correction has run its course which tech stock do you feel will bounce back quickest?

TechSavvyTSC:

I think the Usual Suspects will be first to bounce back, and with the biggest bounces: CSCO, MSFT, DELL (slower, maybe, but still big), etc. I also think tel-tech got whacked for no good reason at all, and will come back strong.

Red_Rocker_9 asks:

Will Seagate be under pressure from their disk drive unit?

TechSavvyTSC:

I think Seagate is a touch, tough case, for which I don't have much hope in terms of increasing share price.

ollllyof asks:

Opinion of Cisco vs. Lucent?

TechSavvyTSC:

I like 'em both, and they both have a place in a techie portfolio. I don't choose between them...and don't feel any NEED to. Buy both.... (FD: I'm long LU right now.)

Up2nite_4u asks:

SDMI has killed MP3... Care to comment?

TechSavvyTSC:

I don't think SDMI has killed MP3, period. MP3 is going to go on, and on, and on (and with MP4, etc.).

TechSavvyTSC:

I think superior formats -- by which I mean the more compressed ones more than I mean the better-sounding ones -- will succeed. MSFT's .asf, for example. But MP3 ain't dead, by a mile.

devilray33770 asks:

You said tel-tech got whacked for no reason--can you give us one in particular?

TechSavvyTSC:

Tel-tech was an innocent victim in this market fall -- a drive-by whacking.

TechSavvyTSC:

Volume is up, the move from voice to data continues apace, new technology is coming on as expected. Tel-tech will remain a huge and profitable industry. It fell because...it was there.

lyncha00 asks:

Jim - you and all the box-makers are hoping AMD can finally execute. What steps have they taken to insure yields are up? have they spent money in the right places?

TechSavvyTSC:

I can't know whether "they've spent money in the right places." And I don't know if they'll be successful.

TechSavvyTSC:

I think the Athlon has a performance and price advantage right now. The hardest thing is going to be to get name-brand box-makers to put the Athlon in their high-end systems.

ut90horn asks:

Do you like Lucents EPAC player?

TechSavvyTSC:

No personal experience with it yet, so I can't say.

issamdalloul asks:

Hi Jim.. What do you think of Verio, Concentric, and Kovad?

TechSavvyTSC:

I think Verio hasn't worked a roll-up, and their customers are paying the price. I think Covad is headed for a big, big, profitable future.

TechSavvyTSC:

Concentric looks good, but I see better places for my money. (FD: I'm a Verio customer.)

bigcat567_1999 asks:

Jim, I noticed after your column today it did not say you were long ATT?

TechSavvyTSC:

I *am* long T, and will check to see how that was dropped. Thanks for the catch!

lateyearbear asks:

Do you tell investors that options provide a good hedge (as you tell them to buy at all time highs?)

TechSavvyTSC:

I have never told investors to buy at all-time highs...just as right now I'm saying we haven't yet hit bottom, and it's too soon to buy!

Steverino54191 asks:

Cisco just reported EPS of $0,21 this quarter, any thoughts?

TechSavvyTSC:

CSCO came in about where I expected. Their business is great; the Net is still exploding upward in size, running on CSCO products.

lyncha00 asks:

Jim - keep them coming! your columns are truly exceptional. Does USIX have the horsepower to turn itself around? What a slide!

TechSavvyTSC:

Thanks for the kind words. USIX reported a *terrible* quarter, MUCH worse than the analysts expected...and they paid the price.

TechSavvyTSC:

Or at least, their *shareholders* did! I think they'll be back, but not overnight.

Java_Joey asks:

Jim, I am considering becoming part of a business in e-commerce through a company affiliated with Amway. Is it a good investment?

TechSavvyTSC:

Beats me -- I have never understood the pyramid-sales model...beyond the obvious.

EddieBerman asks:

What are your thoughts on Metricom's Ricochet wireless system?

TechSavvyTSC:

I think Metricom has a huge opportunity. Ricochet is a great product, if a little overpriced. With

Paul Allen's

money, Metricom can make a good start -- but only a start! -- on the kind of national network they need. Wish they were up and running where I live!

dashmuir asks:

Are there any merger trends that seem likely in the coming 12 months?

TechSavvyTSC:

More tel-tech mergers. I don't think QWST-USW's

Joe Nacchio

is through, yet, for example.

mn_chat asks:

Jim, are you also long on other internets like AOL?

TechSavvyTSC:

I am not long AOL. But probably should be, or at least soon.

marttr asks:

What do you think of AMD's new Athlon Processor? Will it upset Intel's dominance?

TechSavvyTSC:

I wrote about that yesterday; check the column. The real challenge here for AMD is to get name-brand PC companies to use the fastest Athlon in their top-of-the-line boxes fast. That's going to be tough.

yechiellorch asks:

What about alcatel as a dsl play?

TechSavvyTSC:

I like Alcael's technology -- see my coverage of the SuperComm show, a couple of months ago -- but I wish I saw them making a bigger dent in the market.

CABob39 asks:

Regarding Metricom, since it takes a while to expand their business, isn't it likely there will be someone else out there with a better product before they're ready?

TechSavvyTSC:

Agree that it's risky as hell for them. With 4X-10X the capital they could have avoided this...as I said in a column not so long ago. I *really* like Metricom, but worry that they aren't thinking big enough, fast enough.

dgarcia801 asks:

Jim, do you like GPS and WMT?

TechSavvyTSC:

I like 'em both, but GPS's stumble means for now -- and especially after today's numbers and the market's response -- WMT looks like the place to be.

Mdach1 asks:

Aaron Task

mentioned in his column ARTT as a good wireless broadband play. What is your opinion?

TechSavvyTSC:

ARTT is a *great* play. Strong company, good tech.

TechSavvyTSC:

Thanks, everyone. Enjoyed it, as always, Keep reading, keep writing.