NEW YORK (
fills his blog on
every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:
- why this wasn't Dell's quarter;
- why the market can't find its footing; and
- what's wrong with SodaStream.
for information on
, where you can see all the blogs, including Jim Cramer's -- and reader comments -- in real time.
This Isn't Dell's Day
Posted at 6:34 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, Aug. 16.
So will people say
? Will they say Dell is the consumer? Or will they say Dell is, well, Dell?
In this market, it doesn't even matter. They will say "sell Dell" and everything else for that matter. This is the big problem with owning tech right here. It's the wrong season. It's when companies blow up, and it is only made worse by weakness in Europe and worries by the consumer. If
Anthropologie can see 10 days that shook the world -- 10 horrible selling days leading up to today's conference call -- how is Dell going to be doing? Anyway, Apple's got the whole market frozen with the darned iPad.
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Tech, like banks, like companies that need the government to make their quarter, must be sold. Every time we get one of these rallies, it's just another selling opportunity. There is nothing that is going to be so missed that you are going to regret it.
As I said today on my
with Deborah, in the longer term, Dell will get it together, but it wasn't going to be this quarter. It's just too difficult to pinpoint when Michael Dell's turnaround will manifest itself with good earnings and revenue.
But one thing's for certain. It sure wasn't this quarter.
Now I can only imagine what will happen when
reports on Thursday!
At the time of publication, Cramer was long AAPL.
Posted at 1:44 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, Aug. 16.
We're back in the world where stocks fall so much faster than they rally that we have to take into account we are simply nowhere when it comes to the averages or individual stocks.
We are not at a level where we have any footing and we are not at a level where we can handle weakness from overseas.
We are at some level where we can cascade with no floor, for certain.Right now, again, as we had last week on the way down, no sense of whether any particular company is doing well. And I want to make it clear that I don't like lockstep in either direction.
Like Doug, I believe in individual stock picking and the idea that every stock is the same and they all go down similarly -- except ones that go down even harder -- is repulsive.
Here's what I see happening. Without yield support we are totally adrift on any European news, and I mean any, because I don't' care what the French and German leaders might have said, the bears were not going to let this market lift.
When you are in no-man's land you have to recognize that everything is vulnerable except for gold. We all resent it, but to me we have to repeal some of the big move back up until we get to a level where the stocks stop trading in lockstep and the recession proofers find their footing.
The Problem with SodaStream
Posted at 12:39 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, Aug. 17.
We've got a huge debate raging on line and it goes like this: why did Cramer kill
? What were his reasons?
This kind of debate leaves me cold because it is downright silly. The reason why SodaStream has plummeted endlessly is entirely because management told you it won't do as well in the future as it did in the past.
When you analyze the lifecycle of a high flier like SodaStream you must always accept that momentum plays the largest role in the trajectory. As long as management keeps beating earnings estimates by a mile and as long as it keeps raising guidance substantially, the stock will trend higher. Shorts who bet against it will be trapped. Longs who champion it have something great to talk about.
But SodaStream did the exact opposite of this on the conference call. They talked about how the second half won't be as good as the first half of the year, despite expectations that the holiday selling season would be terrific. They talked about how they saw a rather dramatic decline in the rate of change of growth.
That's all well and bad. But it is what they didn't say that got me really upset: that they had no real explanation for the slowing and which markets specifically have turned sour. Plus, they offered no new news on outlets that could reverse this negativity.
It is entirely possible that the company was just being ultra-conservative, that it was just trying to reduce expectations and everything is actually hunky-dory. Maybe they have a huge holiday season up their sleeves, and not a flat quarter-to-quarter in the pipe.
But until we see that, I remain troubled about this company's prospects and believe that something's gone wrong that I just don't know about. Until I do, it is a wait-and-see story and no more than that.