NEW YORK (
) -- Jim Cramer fills his blog on
every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:
- the current enthusiasm for retail names;
- the media's misinterpretation of what's happening in housing; and
- the unheralded bank rally.
for information on
, where you can see all the blogs, including Jim Cramer's -- and reader comments -- in real time.
Ride the Retail Wave?
Posted at 9:45 a.m. EST, Friday, Dec. 23
The oscillator is too high. The sentiment is very bullish. The animal spirits may be ahead of themselves. And
, an undistinguished operator of craft stores, gets a humongous, $61 bid from a private equity outfit, up $16 from the day before.
Isn't that the real issue in a nutshell? When we think that the optimism gets too unbridled, particularly in retail, which isn't aided by a lot of job growth -- today's number showing just a little positive bump -- when we want to ratchet back or take profits in a segment that seems overextended like the
, we get a bid that has us scratching our heads. Jo-Ann Stores isn't anything terrific. In fact it's a lot like
, another P/E takeover that I always thought was doing badly! Looks like it can't be. And I haven't see that
deal, so I figure that, too, can't be doing all that great.
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Yet Jo-Ann Stores is now worth a ton more than yesterday, and I want those points, just like I wanted the points you got from
. Plus, last night
Bed Bath & Beyond
delivered a terrific quarter, so it's not just takeout that has me hunting through the group. (
on the free site about retail takeovers running rampant.) The Bed Bath & Beyond was so good -- and consider that it was the second excellent quarter in a row after a quarter earlier in the year when the company had been quite bearish -- that I am thinking, Wait a second, darned the retail torpedoes, full speed ahead. That was a magnificent quarter from Bed Bath & Beyond, with excellent expansion of non-Bed Bath & Beyond stores -- particularly the Harmon discount drug stores, a better operator than the skyrocketing
-- and a nice accumulation of cash to do another couple billion dollar buyback.
So, what are we supposed to do? Play the antisentiment, antioscillator game and boycott the market? Or find more Jo-Ann's and Bed Bath & Beyonds.
I think the latter.
At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
The Housing Story Cries Out to Be Told
Posted at 1:27 p.m. EST, Thursday, Dec. 22
The just-plain-embarrassing coverage of the housing industry continues. This morning's existing-home sales trend, which resumed its upward trend with pricing stable, is already being portrayed as a disappointment.
The press, to steal a quote from my friend and adviser Matt Horween, is dumb as rocks. From the point of view of someone who has been glued to these numbers, calling them a disappointment is just a plain lie. Every month these numbers come out, and every month we then get projections that it is the last good month and that pricing trends are about to get hammered. Then the numbers come out, and they are not awful, they are better, and the pricing is stable, and then the numbers are quickly pronounced bad, and the forecast is that they are going to get worse.
This is nonsense, something that the surging housing index (HGX) tells you is just a plain wrong and biased view.
Here's the deal: If home prices were like stocks, they would be pretty much unchanged year over year.
Do you believe that if you read the coverage?
Sales are going up, not down. They are supposed to be going down right now, this month, if you look at last month's coverage.
There is no accountability whatsoever on the reportage of housing.
Housing is fine. Mortgage money remains hard to come by as manifested by a huge percentage of cash purchases. A lot of homes are being taken off the market by the foreclosure stalling.
But in the end, this is a "better than expected from last month" number. That's all that matters to me. It is why the homebuilders are up, and it is a part of why the homebuilders keep going higher.
The fools who keep saying that housing is worse and getting much worse need to explain themselves. But they won't.
Because I am the only one calling them out, and that's simply not enough to make them question their views and their biases, which, amazingly, after a year of stable pricing, refuse to change.
What an extraordinary deviation from the truth. Outrageous, wrong and unquestioned. I'm from the print world. I have seen people get fired for bias and inaccuracy. I guess those days are now long gone. Too bad. It was nice to know that the truth had no deadline. I guess that's just plain over.
Banks Are Rallying Right Under Your Nose
Posted at 11:36 a.m. EST, Thursday, Dec. 22
Call it the great December bank rally. The big bank breakout. Call it something, but definitely take notice of it.
Here's why: No one is championing it. The only research we see on it is negative. We keep hearing number cuts. We keep hearing about attorneys general blasts. We keep hearing about departures of CEOs and a strong belief that next year will bring nothing good. We keep hearing that home prices are going down -- more on that in a later posting.
And what is the group doing? It is going higher. Onward and upward higher. I could see the banking index (BKX) going to 58 on this move.
I have been pushing the banks everywhere, and I see very few believers. People have all been burned so often that no one can blame them for not wanting to talk about them, let alone buy them.
But when you see moves based on nothing, no sponsorship, no good news, endless carping about QE2 -- heard a ton of that just today
Bank of America
are going up in giant gulps and taking out levels that were supposed to stop them, you have to ask yourself can you afford to miss
or JPMorgan? You want to stay in the defensives, which act awfully?
I like the materials stocks, but let's understand that it would be nice to own something that's got momentum in earnings -- the materials -- but something that's cheap vs. where it could be next year and, by comparison with Europe, in sterling shape.
Well-capitalized. Sought after, as per the earth-shaking
Marshall & Ilsley
bid. Spreads widening as per the much-criticized QE2. Home prices stable. Two big bears, Nouriel Roubini and Meredith Whitney, going away from their negative theses, with Whitney focused on California revenue bonds.
This is the group.
And just wait until the press and the analysts turn positive. They are still yammering about foreclosures and bad sales, even though foreclosures peaked already and bad sales aren't bad.
I expect the bandwagon to be big by these same naysayers in 2011. But not until after the bulk of the move is made.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long PNC and JPM.
Jim Cramer, founder and chairman of TheStreet.com, writes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's RealMoney and runs the charitable trust portfolio,
. He also participates in video segments on TheStreet.com TV and serves as host of CNBC's "Mad Money" television program.
Mr. Cramer graduated magna cum laude from Harvard College, where he was president of The Harvard Crimson. He worked as a journalist at the Tallahassee Democrat and the Los Angeles Herald Examiner, covering everything from sports to homicide before moving to New York to help start American Lawyer magazine. After a three-year stint, Mr. Cramer entered Harvard Law School and received his J.D. in 1984. Instead of practicing law, however, he joined Goldman Sachs, where he worked in sales and trading. In 1987, he left Goldman to start his own hedge fund. While he worked at his fund, Mr. Cramer helped start Smart Money for Dow Jones and then, in 1996, he founded TheStreet.com, of which he is chairman and where he has served as a columnist and contributor since. In 2000, Mr. Cramer retired from active money management to embrace media full time, including radio and television.
Mr. Cramer is the author of "
," "You Got Screwed," "Jim Cramer's Real Money," "Jim Cramer's Mad Money," "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life" and, most recently, "Jim Cramer's Getting Back to Even." He has written for Time magazine and New York magazine and has been featured on CBS' 60 Minutes, NBC's Nightly News with Brian Williams, Meet the Press, Today, The Tonight Show, Late Night and MSNBC's Morning Joe.