NEW YORK (
) -- Jim Cramer fills his blog on
every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:
- the stocks that will benefit from year-end buying;
- why the market hasn't topped out yet; and
- why the banks at last have clear skies.
for information on
, where you can see all the blogs, including Jim Cramer's -- and reader comments -- in real time.
Expect Year-End Buying in These Stocks
Posted at 4:47 p.m. EST, Friday, Dec. 10
People are gonna wake up Monday morning and try to figure out how they can put some money into this market. Believe me, the investor psychology when they hear new highs and see the runs in some of these stocks will cause money to flow in, not flow out. In the meantime, those who wanted to sell because of the prospective tax law changes are now trying to figure out how to get back in.
What will they buy? I am sure much of the money will be indexed, people who want exposure to everything. But I believe a lot of it is going to go into the winners, the stocks perceived as great gainers that are also household names.
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Here's a couple that I think will get money thrown at them:
Ford and General Motors . Both are regarded as bedrock names that can be bought with lots of faith that the future is brighter than the past and that dividends will be coming.
General Electric here is the quintessential old-line name that has just boosted the dividend, and people love that these days.
Citigroup : Is there a person who doesn't know that the government is at last finished selling? The $4 price will be too juicy to ignore.
Amazon : There's a lot of "Buy where you shop," and I sense that Amazon is going to be in incredible demand right about now. It's not an easy name to buy a lot of shares of it, but it makes too much sense for the public not to pile into it.
Verizon : People know that Verizon Wireless is going to get the Apple iPhone. They like the yield. They like the price action. They want something that is good and solid and can boost the dividend.
These would be my picks to bet on for a couple-of-week rally into the close of the year. Big, visible, known: that's what's going to attract the money.
remains one of the strongest stocks in this market, in part, I believe because I keep hearing anecdotal evidence of very strong mens' shoe sales.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long AAPL and GM.
We Haven't Reached the Market Top Yet
Posted at 1:22 p.m. EST, Friday, Dec. 10
We've not seen the highs for the year. It's become quite fashionable to say we have, but when I look at the dearth of news and the breakouts -- whether they be in transports, banks, oils or the housing index -- they translate, in my opinion, to higher
Doug Kass mentioned earlier that there were
too many bulls coming on TV and that that's an important indicator of too much froth. I come back and say, "Wait, they are mostly circumspect bulls." I don't ever hear anyone saying "buy, buy, buy." Not only that, but they are limited bulls. They like special situations, not the market. And they tend to be very worried about the usual litany: Chinese tightening, European bank failures, no compromise in Congress.
My take is that the out-and-out bulls just aren't there. That the money has
begun to come in from the sidelines. And a lot of money that was leaving the market because of a change in dividends and capital gains laws is now
or not leaving as expected.
Expiration week could be explosive, in my opinion. Many people are short December calls. I bet they don't want to lose their stock.
I simply don't believe, with all of these breakouts, that we have seen the highs and are done.
To me it feels like we are going higher. We aren't done yet.
Banks Are Officially Out of the Woods
Posted at 2:58 p.m. EST, Thursday, Dec. 9
We are there. Day three of a three-day bank rally. We have broken the spell. The rise in interest rates, so potentially good for the gross margins of banks because of rising net interest margins, the holy grail of bank investing, is being viewed as the clarion call to buy, just as it is being viewed as such for the insurers.
The mortgage mess? Not considered to be nearly as toxic as we thought, especially with Fannie Mae now out there willing to negotiate principal reduction terms. The second-lien worries from home equity loans? A canard. Written off. Totally in the stocks, except from where the media are concerned.
WikiLeaks? I think that unless they have a memo which says, "Let's steal from everyone and lie to the Congress about it," this will be ho-hum. The mortgage putbacks? These are all litigation issues to be handled one at a time and will not only not overwhelm the banks but will be worth no more than pennies a share, even for
Bank of America
Remember the clues:
is saying that people are putting money back into their homes. They do that when they know they can increase the value of their homes.
We know that taxes aren't going to soar for people who have problems making their mortgage.
We know that unemployment benefits are going to be extended for people who are having problems making their mortgage.
We know that with far fewer homes being built that can actually replace the naturally lost stock that occurs every year, let alone the million people historically who need to get new homes because of divorce or families that now too big to stay under the in-laws' roof, we need intact homes to sell. Who has more of them than
and Bank of America?
Most important: I think that the press itself is sick of the story. The editors don't want any more stories about mortgages. They are sick of them. People have stopped reading them. They are at last into "Find me another scandal" mode. In the meantime, outfits like
are coining money on stocks and bonds and currencies. Credit has gotten better and better.
And the banks are all about to play defense with their excess capital, capital that we know will not have to be replenished, because the people who make the capital rules are far more worried about breaking the insolvent European banks than about trying to give
a hard time.
It's been a long time, but this morning we initiated a position in a bank for
. Stephanie Link and I have been waiting for a rally that had some staying power, one that would most likely make the Meredith Whitneys seem like broken records or tune-changers -- why shouldn't she declare victory while she still has it?
It is time.
The three-day winning streak is upon us. The dividends are coming. The yield curve is here.
And the mortgage morass is just way too boring for the press to win Pulitzers with these days.
That's the time. Can't pick one? Pick the Banking Index (BKX.X), which bottomed in August.
The story's a good one. The tax losses have been taken.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long JPM.
Jim Cramer, founder and chairman of TheStreet.com, writes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's RealMoney and runs the charitable trust portfolio,
. He also participates in video segments on TheStreet.com TV and serves as host of CNBC's "Mad Money" television program.
Mr. Cramer graduated magna cum laude from Harvard College, where he was president of The Harvard Crimson. He worked as a journalist at the Tallahassee Democrat and the Los Angeles Herald Examiner, covering everything from sports to homicide before moving to New York to help start American Lawyer magazine. After a three-year stint, Mr. Cramer entered Harvard Law School and received his J.D. in 1984. Instead of practicing law, however, he joined Goldman Sachs, where he worked in sales and trading. In 1987, he left Goldman to start his own hedge fund. While he worked at his fund, Mr. Cramer helped start Smart Money for Dow Jones and then, in 1996, he founded TheStreet.com, of which he is chairman and where he has served as a columnist and contributor since. In 2000, Mr. Cramer retired from active money management to embrace media full time, including radio and television.
Mr. Cramer is the author of "
," "You Got Screwed," "Jim Cramer's Real Money," "Jim Cramer's Mad Money," "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life" and, most recently, "Jim Cramer's Getting Back to Even." He has written for Time magazine and New York magazine and has been featured on CBS' 60 Minutes, NBC's Nightly News with Brian Williams, Meet the Press, Today, The Tonight Show, Late Night and MSNBC's Morning Joe.