Jim Cramer fills his blog on RealMoney every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:
- what Friday's action means;
- the importance of Salesforce.com; and
- why jobless claims are a barometer for the November election.
for information on
, where you can see all the blogs, including Jim Cramer's -- and reader comments -- in real time.
The Return of Predictability
Posted at 3:30 p.m. EDT, Friday, August 20
This market has a total jones for growth. It's just bizarrely attuned to it. My measure, the CANDIES --
-- has had an explosive day, even when the market was down.
All but ISRG have been hanging in there or soaring. (
Ken Shreve gave me some interesting insight into ISRG -- other procedures are coming in under the cost of ISRG's Da Vinci, possibly putting price pressure on what had been monster story. Ken points out to me that the chart's breakdown may be presaging something worse, and no one knows this stuff like Ken.
Today's whole snapback, led by NASDAQ, is a sign that people are searching for growth in a slowdown,
a re-recession, which is what I am now going to call a double-dip. This move is in keeping with the
important article Doug Kass recommended this morning about how a slowdown isn't the death of the market. I am particularly heartened by how the market seems to be taking
at face value, when it says that the disk-drive inventory glut might be ending. I know this is in conflict with the prevailing gloom, but it is right on schedule with the coming fall upswing for tech.
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Of course, CRM remains the ultimate barometer of how much growth is cherished, as it seems wildly expensive... except when you realize that the company is being valued on what it will do in the out years, like 2014, and how its market cap is way too low vs. the companies it is targeting, notably
These are all good signs of a market that is returning to predictability, in keeping with Doug's
At the time of publication, Cramer was long AAPL.
SalesForce.com Setting the Pace
Posted at 11:41 a.m. EDT, Friday, August 20
? The more I think about it, the more I am realizing that Salesforce.com has become the
standard for all software, the way to go for corporations to free themselves of the way they communicate and to free themselves from desktop communications.
I have been an unabashed proselytizer for Salesforce.com for about 80 points thinking that its cloud computing model would change the way sales forces work forever. We all know that sales force accountability is one of the great weaknesses of business, and CRM enables managers to see what's really going on through sales software that's delivered in a cheaper, easier way, through the Web. Last night's blowout quarter wasn't about sales software. It was about communications up and down through the organization. It was about Facebook for the enterprise, called Chatter, and it is the quick and easy way for managements to keep track and stay in touch with everyone, just like Facebook.
I don't want to simplify all of the things that Salesforce.com does. You can see the myriad interviews with Mark Benioff on
and recognize, as I do, that this man should join Alan Mulally and Steve Jobs as one of the great CEOs in the U.S. More important, though, is a recognition that Benioff came out of Oracle determined to do it a better way.
He's created it.
The stock up 9 means nothing. I think it can go much higher as shorts realize you can't short on valuation -- what many did going in the quarter -- and longs recognize that a $14 billion valuation is too little.
Oracle or Microsoft should have bought or should buy these guys if they want growth. Before Benioff destroys them.
Anything is possible with Benioff. He will figure out a way to blunt any advances that Oracle or Microsoft can make, because his product is superior, his company is superior, and he is superior.
Salesforce.com is the "S" in
, my high-growth group of stocks that also includes
, Apple, Netflix,
In many ways it is the best of the bunch. Last night's quarter is testimony that this one's going much higher and not stopping up 12. There's too much wealth being created here.
Learn the story. Get comfortable. Understand why people like it up 12. And of course hope it comes in a little in the next big market selloff so you can buy some.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long AAPL.
Market Trading the Politics of Jobs News
Posted at 11:00 a.m. EDT, Thursday, August 19
Is every jobless claims report now going to be viewed as a gridlock gauge? Are we now hoping for job claims to be terrible because we know that the GOP will take over and stop the re-regulation and the pro-labor, anti-capital view?
I think so. Because otherwise we would be down huge today off of a 500,000 claim, and that whole move in retail yesterday should be repealed, especially in
, which I think is very inflated, and certainly in the retail index in general.
This market seems to be trading on a whole lot of issues other than stock fundamentals. We are trading on oil, we are trading on currencies, and we are trading on politics. Thursdays are now political days, where we get to be excited about the prospect of the GOP taking at least 10 seats in the Senate and 50 in the House.
What do I mean when I say we are not trading on the fundamentals? Because this week we have seen two deals that tell us, "Look out: Companies, big cash-rich companies, are taking matters into their own hands."
deal is astonishing. I know Intel will go down on it -- Intel is an
name. But Intel is saying with this move that owning just the microprocessor in the computer isn't enough. To me it is a dream to own a one-stop-shop chip that can be used for security and power. It can go beyond the PC, too, to cloud and the desire to have security in the cloud, the biggest detriment to cloud growth.
But more important for the stock market, what is being said here is that
, which has done nothing for years -- Intel is paying what amounts to the high for the stock in the last couple of years -- is worth more to someone else than it is to the various ETFs that pretty much control its value.
Sounds familiar? Sounds like
If we truly cared about stocks and not politics or the price of oil or the minute moves for the dollar, we would have a monster move in resource stocks and tech, because the big companies in both areas clearly see more value than traders do.
But we don't.
Maybe not until after we stop looking at the claims as a bad-news-is-good-news referendum on Obama and the Democrats.
Why aren't banks doing very poorly today on that rise in claims, which means more defaults? I think because of the fees they are going to get from all of these big deals.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long INTC.
Jim Cramer, co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com, writes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's RealMoney and runs the charitable trust portfolio,
. He also participates in video segments on TheStreet.com TV and serves as host of CNBC's "Mad Money" television program.
Mr. Cramer graduated magna cum laude from Harvard College, where he was president of The Harvard Crimson. He worked as a journalist at the Tallahassee Democrat and the Los Angeles Herald Examiner, covering everything from sports to homicide before moving to New York to help start American Lawyer magazine. After a three-year stint, Mr. Cramer entered Harvard Law School and received his J.D. in 1984. Instead of practicing law, however, he joined Goldman Sachs, where he worked in sales and trading. In 1987, he left Goldman to start his own hedge fund. While he worked at his fund, Mr. Cramer helped start Smart Money for Dow Jones and then, in 1996, he co-founded TheStreet.com, of which he is chairman and where he has served as a columnist and contributor since. In 2000, Mr. Cramer retired from active money management to embrace media full time, including radio and television.
Mr. Cramer is the author of "
," "You Got Screwed," "Jim Cramer's Real Money," "Jim Cramer's Mad Money," "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life" and, most recently, "Jim Cramer's Getting Back to Even." He has written for Time magazine and New York magazine and has been featured on CBS' 60 Minutes, NBC's Nightly News with Brian Williams, Meet the Press, Today, The Tonight Show, Late Night and MSNBC's Morning Joe.