Jim Cramer fills his blog on
every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:
- Buyable opportunities
- Natural gas as the anti-BP bet
- The men in pajamas who move the market
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Posted Monday, June 14, 6:35 a.m. EDT
Every weekend when I review the charts, I list all of the ones that seem buyable or interesting on the front page of the hand-delivered booklet.
This weekend, I ran out of room. There were so many that looked confirmed in an uptrend and so many that looked like they have bottomed and are on the way up.
All sorts of groups appear buyable, including aerospace with
leading; auto, with
; and health care, with
(the HMOs all show up strongly, at last) finally joining
with nice trends.
-- drug companies!-- at last join the positive side of the ledger, and one wonders whether that is a euro stabilization or new drugs in the pipeline or a little of both.
Some of the techs, and pseudo-techs connected with the Internet, such as
appear strong although
haven't found footing. Anything cloud and storage --
-- remains promising and there is finally a semi-equipment company,
, with legs to stand on.
Banks look horrible, but at least it is not total commoditization with
-- not that good fundamentally -- joining
as strong. Those are all unaffected by FinReg so it stands to reason. Without the completion of FinReg you can tell these stocks aren't moving. Maybe that's why
seems fantastic and ready to go higher. The latter could also be propelled by the valuation of the week's, and maybe the year's, most exciting IPO, the Chicago Board Options Exchange.
The oil spill is starting to lead to some differentiating as the nat gas companies like
have started to assert themselves, although it would be helpful to see
seem done going down.
In the driller cohort, I like the looks of
, a land driller, even as much as I dislike the offshore plays as is fitting of the destruction of the Gulf as a place to drill.
may be the best chart of all. That's something new.
Retail's got the same players that always seem to be working here, places where buyers lurk constantly underneath:
. But some new ones --
looks buyable to me.
Safety's almost all fabulous:
are just being gobbled up although the last two seem overstretched.
The rails shocked me with good charts, of which
seems best in show. They vaulted after the Chinese import and export numbers showed strength as the rails have become part and parcel with that trade.
Finally, I see a lot of special situations, some very high multiple, like
Frankly, a week ago most of these stocks looked like they were about to break down badly. A contrarian might say, "Jim, if these all look buyable after they looked like breaking down, maybe they are about to be sales because of the same logic." I have no answer to that other than I think we had a correction that was desperate to find a floor and we have found it.
The ceiling? I am sure it is lurking. But the fear factor that has so paralyzed the market post China/euro/flash crash/FinReg/unemployment redflags seems to have dissipated, making at least for a stable and better market.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Apple, Cisco, Intel and Prudential
Nat-Gas as the Anti-BP
Posted Tuesday, June 15, 11:05 a.m. EDT
People keep asking me, in email, on Twitter, in the "Mad Money" lightning round, "How about
, how about
?" And I keep saying, what the heck are you doing? You walking into interstitial fields of fire? You want to walk into the market's kill zone?
You want the anti-Anadarko. You want the anti-BP. You want the company that got out of deepwater drilling because it felt it too risky. You want
Did Devon's chairman and former CEO see the disaster coming? No? But he has told me repeatedly that the costs and dangers of offshore drilling in deep wells just aren't worth the effort or the risk for all but the super-majors like BP and
. He sold promising lots for cash right before the debacle, and now he is sitting on that cash, drilling cheap gas wells in big shales and buying the heck out of his shares on the open market.
Today marks a second day when natural gas is above $5. The stuff should be in oversupply and getting hammered. I know shorts who said it is going to $2. I can understand that. The rig count is sky high. Companies are drilling like mad. But there is an overwhelming sense that you need to drill and at least placehold wells, because the stuff is so compelling that companies are going to switch to it no matter who is president (although every oil and gas man I know believes that there will be a change at the White House and that the next president will see the wisdom of the stuff).
As for the day-to-day move over $5, this is explained by
U.S. Natural Gas Fund
demand (well covered by expert Dan Dicker) as people are simply reallocating toward nat gas from oil. It's a bogus way to reallocate, because it does not reflect underlying demand yet or presumes some real hot summer days, but it is producing some better numbers for the portion of Devon that isn't hedged. It is too bad that there isn't a better way to play it. I don't expect Devon to get a bid, and most of the activity at this point involves the buying of the stakes of private companies.
Still, you don't get
spending billions to buy the stuff if they don't believe there is strong multiyear demand for a fuel that is spurned by many right now. They don't. It makes no sense unless nat gas does become the real bridge fuel to a non-fossil future.
Today there's a story on
saying that natural gas above $5 will cause utilities to switch to coal. To which I say, duh. Coal is cheaper down to $2. The utilities aren't thinking about the price of coal. They are thinking about the price of going against a rogue EPA that will do anything they can to make life tough for the utilities that keep using coal.
Now, if you don't like Devon because you think that it doesn't have enough of the stuff, then you should be buying
. Chesapeake is the No. 1 nat-gas company in just about every category, and it can keep selling off parts of properties to pay down debt and get bigger and bigger for the moment when trucks and buses are mandated to use natural gas because of the particulates they emit in cities. Yes, that will ultimately be the driver, not energy independence, or jobs. It will be inner-city asthma and it will be disease from bad air that will cause a president to champion the fuel.
I think the four-year time frame is about right, and that is why I am saying to buy the Chesapeake preferred and bide some time earning 5%-plus. If Chesapeake goes about $44, you are in the money.
Lots of people are saying that nat gas is going up because of worries about hurricanes and because of heat. I get that. But I also think that it's going up because the shorts made a huge bet at a time when the market is saying BP's woes equals nat gas' gain. In the short-term it shouldn't be going up.
But long term?
It might end up, between the EPA and the banning of deepwater drilling, the most important game in town.
Seeing some real good buying in mainstream tech a la my suggestion on last night's show that people consider buying the plain old techs on valuation.
At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in stocks mentioned.
Beware the Men Who Work in Pajamas
Posted Wednesday, June 16, 8:05 a.m. EDT
Somewhere, in some warren or den in some suburb or small city is a player with $1 billion right now who is sitting in his pajamas trying to figure out if this is the day he should break the market.
He's looking at the euro, trying to figure out if it has a shot at breaking $1.22. He's examining the oil futures and wondering if they could get to $75 on inventory numbers, which he figures will be bad -- whatever "bad" is these days. He's doing his charting on the
iPath Copper ETN
and doing his probability work on whether copper's ever gone up for eight straight days. He's figuring out how horrible housing starts will be and whether the press will play them to be doubly horrible -- pro-UltraShort reporters -- and how negatively the inflation data will be twisted by the media.
And he's thinking -- why not? It's quadruple witching. He can buy out-of-the-money puts on pretty much every double- and triple-short ETF, making it so the sellers of the puts have to short the ETFs to protect themselves. He can come in with $200 million or $300 million in Eminis for sale right after some nasty national number comes out, or maybe when
breaks $30 -- but only after he put position-limit June BP 30 puts, totally unhedgeable for the seller so there will be huge pressure on the stock. And his year is made.
The difficulty will be splitting the profits with all of the other guys in their pajamas looking at the exact same parameters, knowing no more than he does and putting the same plan into action.
So, when you do all of your work on whether it is right to buy the stock of
because you like the Asian build-out, or the stock of
because you think the orders are getting better, or the stock of
because you think that the quarter's closing strong ... just remember that these guys in the pajamas -- who know NOTHING about stocks -- have all of the cards and can pretty much do whatever they want, have their way, with your General Mills and your Emerson and your Oracle. Until their indicators say they should stop, that is, and then once again, your company's prospects might matter.
The difference is -- these days, they never stop.
At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
Jim Cramer, co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com, writes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's RealMoney and runs the charitable trust portfolio,
. He also participates in video segments on TheStreet.com TV and serves as host of CNBC's "Mad Money" television program.
Mr. Cramer graduated magna cum laude from Harvard College, where he was president of The Harvard Crimson. He worked as a journalist at the Tallahassee Democrat and the Los Angeles Herald Examiner, covering everything from sports to homicide before moving to New York to help start American Lawyer magazine. After a three-year stint, Mr. Cramer entered Harvard Law School and received his J.D. in 1984. Instead of practicing law, however, he joined Goldman Sachs, where he worked in sales and trading. In 1987, he left Goldman to start his own hedge fund. While he worked at his fund, Mr. Cramer helped start Smart Money for Dow Jones and then, in 1996, he co-founded TheStreet.com, of which he is chairman and where he has served as a columnist and contributor since. In 2000, Mr. Cramer retired from active money management to embrace media full time, including radio and television.
Mr. Cramer is the author of "
," "You Got Screwed," "Jim Cramer's Real Money," "Jim Cramer's Mad Money," "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life" and, most recently, "Jim Cramer's Getting Back to Even." He has written for Time magazine and New York magazine and has been featured on CBS' 60 Minutes, NBC's Nightly News with Brian Williams, Meet the Press, Today, The Tonight Show, Late Night and MSNBC's Morning Joe.