Jim Cramer fills his blog on
every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:
- a too-obvious commodity linkage,
- why selling makes sense, and
- the resilience of the mobile Internet industry.
for information on
, where you can see all the blogs, including Jim Cramer's -- and reader comments -- in real time.
Commodity Linkage Is Too Binary For My Taste
Posted at 12:57 p.m. EDT, Sept. 21, 2009
Nat gas -- down. Oil -- down. Gold -- down. At one point that would have led to a sharp rally.
Not in this market.
This is a market in constant need of reassurance from the commodities out there to justify the run. So when we don't get the verification, we have no place to go but down.
Last week I lamented the endless linkage to these commodity indicators because the more they go up, the less likely we can have the kind of sustained, low-inflation rally that can take us beyond these levels.
It hasn't mattered to date, because rates remain low -- in part because of
bond-buying and also because away from commodities, there is very little inflation in the system.
But each new auction is going to put pressure on this relationship and make the so-called signposts much less benign. In fact, unless we delink, we are going to find the signposts downright malignant.
We have a vacuum of data right here and now, because we are in no man's land when it comes to earnings. If we catch some preannouncements, we can delink to the downside. (I don't expect any preannouncements to the upside.)
We are captured in a dismal world where we need more to go on than these varied commodities.
We don't have it.
So we go down on them. Or up.
Too binary for this guy's taste. Especially today!
Selling Makes Sense
Posted at 3:12 p.m. EDT, Sept. 24, 2009
Which is more of a foregone conclusion,
10,000 or Dow 9000? Yesterday we heard people talk about 10,000 being foregone. Now it feels more like Dow 9000 to me, in keeping with my belief that we could have a quick sharp pullback.
Like you, I talk to a gazillion people about the market. The more I talk about it, the more I hear myself say, "Why buy here? Why not do some selling to get set for a lower price? What's wrong with doing that now?" For the life of me I can't figure out what's wrong with taking profits.
I am a stock guy, but I keep an ear out for Washington at all times. I have to tell you that everything I hear out of Congress is so negative for the U.S. economy that I can't be oblivious to it. Our Congress is run with a tight hand by Nancy Pelosi, Henry Waxman and Charles Rangel. The actions of this crew are so anti-stock market ... and they chatter forever. I have to start factoring them in as I factor in railcar loadings and chemicals and copper.
The combination of the heights we are at, the need to take profits and the goading of the congressional trio make me feel foolish if I don't keep selling.
So I am.
Mobile Industry Isn't Going Anywhere
Posted at 11:21 a.m. EDT, Sept. 25, 2009
Gloriously, people recognize that the problems are with
Research In Motion
and not with the mobile Internet tsunami. I am gratified to see that
remains strong and that the component players are strong, too.
This is a business that will last for years and years, and the idea that Research In Motion has to cut prices to move product is indicative, to me, of the strength of Apple. I would be thinking of the plays that are necessary to expand in this business, so I would look at
-- although everyone keeps chattering endlessly about the problems in China for Qualcomm, problems that are short-term involving the delay of systems being built.
I also see that
is up, and I remain convinced that
will be a key client of the Pre as a way to be able to offer a product line that can be as broad and as customer-friendly as possible given that Apple's iPhone is so powerful.
I want strongly to reiterate the entire cohort of players in this group because more handsets, including the large amount that Research In Motion is putting out, will make things very strong for 2010.
New homes are as cheap as existing homes these days, so maybe that explains the truth. ... Stay defensive. ... Apropos to my
on IPOs, Robert Castellano has an
(AONE) over on our flagship site. This guy really gets it.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Qualcomm.
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