Jim Cramer fills his blog on

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every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:

  • a tech disconnect,
  • reconciling contradictions, and
  • the folly of waiting for certainty.

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Making Sense of a Tech Disconnect

Posted at 3:05 p.m. EDT, July 27, 2009

Something makes no sense to me. That something is the reaction from

Dell

(DELL) - Get Report

and

Microsoft

(MSFT) - Get Report

vis-a-vis

Western Digital

(WDC) - Get Report

and

Intel

(INTC) - Get Report

. The latter two, often considered the hardware guts of personal computers, are on fire. Western Digital, a disc drive company, just hit a 52-week high. Amazing. Just a huge run. Intel's become an "up" stock, one that gets bought on every couple penny dip.

Image placeholder title

Dell? Nothing. Dell's telling us the market's weak. Dell's saying that people aren't yet ready to buy personal computers. Microsoft was so downbeat about personal computer sales that you would have thought that Intel and Western Digital should have preannounced to the downside!

What's going on?

I think that Dell's losing share, and losing share

fast

. It's lost its way. I don't know why; I have to blame management.

Microsoft's got a product transition, but the quarter should have been better. One of the conclusions I would like to reach from this is that

Hewlett-Packard

(HPQ) - Get Report

should be doing well: Those chips and discs are going somewhere.

Of course, all of the good

Nasdaq

news was bookended by the ugly start with Dell and what looks like the ugly end with Microsoft.

I think those two are the outliers. I feel that

Apple

, too, although only 3% of the personal computer market, is showing incredible demand.

Seeing this kind of growth at the hardware companies makes you question the management of the companies that should be growing right along with Western Digital and Intel.

I think tech will be on a big run here again, after we digest. I think that Dell and Microsoft can be dragged with it, especially the latter; as I said, Microsoft has a new product ahead of it.

But the "weak PC" argument, after looking at Western Digital and Intel, just doesn't hold water.

Random musings

: UBS now says no trading in the dreaded inverse and levered ETFs. Terrific!

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Hewlett-Packard.

Contradictions Abound

Posted at 10:09 a.m. EDT, July 29, 2009

We are all bothered by the seeming counterintuitive nature of the credit moment. In the excellent piece by Goldman Sachs this morning wrapping up bank earnings, I am struck at how great the consumer is doing. The credit losses here have clearly peaked. How is that possible, though, given unemployment? Just totally counterintuitive.

Then we have the commercial real estate market, which is supposed to be falling apart. But here's

Federal Realty

(FRT) - Get Report

doing so well and

Boston Properties

(BXP) - Get Report

above its deal price. Or

Brandywine

(BDN) - Get Report

reporting a great number. How is that possible given what we see? That's mall property, big commercial high rises and smaller office buildings. That doesn't add up. Not at all.

Then there's the biggest conundrum of all, the unmitigated persistent view that housing still has much further to fall, despite data that that says we are experiencing a bottoming and an end to house price depreciation. Again, if the persistent doubters are right, how can the Housing Index (HGX) be doing so well; how can the stocks of

Lennar

(LEN) - Get Report

and

KBH

(KBH) - Get Report

and

Pulte

(PHM) - Get Report

and

Toll

(TOL) - Get Report

be signaling a V-shaped recovery?

And since these numbers, the banks in the cross hairs of real estate woes --

Bank of America

(BAC) - Get Report

and

Wells Fargo

(WFC) - Get Report

, huge repositories of unsold foreclosed homes -- are climbing higher. How is that? How can

Citigroup

(C) - Get Report

, which has some mortgage exposure (commercial) be going up? And the conduits are loaded with asset-backed junk that nobody really knows about.

All of these contradictions just don't add up. They are confusing and they make no sense.

But the market takes action on it, and it is positive action.

Are the buyers dreaming?

My answer, as always: It doesn't matter. They are in charge.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo.

You Can't Afford to Be Certain

Posted at 4:43 p.m. EDT, July 30, 2009

You know what? I am going to wait until I am sure housing has turned before I buy the homebuilders like

Lennar

(LEN) - Get Report

and

Pulte

(PHM) - Get Report

. I am going to wait until the foreclosures peak before I buy

Bank of America

(BAC) - Get Report

and

Wells Fargo

(WFC) - Get Report

.

I am going to wait until unemployment goes down before I buy

3M

(MMM) - Get Report

and

Disney

(DIS) - Get Report

and

IBM

(IBM) - Get Report

and

Caterpillar

(CAT) - Get Report

.

I am going to wait until auto sales go above 10 million before I buy

Ford

(F) - Get Report

. I am going to wait until land lines turn positive before I buy

Verizon

(VZ) - Get Report

or

AT&T

(T) - Get Report

.

I am going to wait until consumer spending turns up before I buy

Apple

(AAPL) - Get Report

or

Hewlett-Packard

(HPQ) - Get Report

or

Best Buy

(BBY) - Get Report

or

Bed Bath & Beyond

(BBBY) - Get Report

.

I am going to wait until I see actual up year-over-year earnings before I pull the trigger on a

Federal Express

(FDX) - Get Report

or a

UPS

(UPS) - Get Report

. I am going to wait until rail-car loadings go positive before I buy

Union Pacific

(UNP) - Get Report

or

Norfolk Southern

(NSC) - Get Report

.

I am going to wait until natural gas prices go up to $6 on real demand before I buy

Anadarko

(APC) - Get Report

or

Devon

(DVN) - Get Report

. I am going to wait until oil goes back over $80 before I buy

Schlumberger

(SLB) - Get Report

and

Transocean

(RIG) - Get Report

. So what if

Apache

(APA) - Get Report

blew away the numbers? I want them all to blow away the numbers before I wade back in.

I am going to wait until health care reform is actually killed before I buy

Johnson & Johnson

(JNJ) - Get Report

or

Express Scripts

(ESRX)

or

Medco Health

(MHS)

.

I am going to wait until I see actual top-line growth before I buy any cyclical. I am going to wait until the

Fed

tells us that things are at last stable before I buy any stock.

There. That's what I see and read and hear on TV and intensely on this show. People who are going to wait. People who want the all-clear to be sounded. People who believe you can wait.

These are the people who will qualify any call of house-price stabilization. They will say that it is only first-time homebuyers. They will point to particular regions where things haven't bottomed: St, Louis, Philadelphia, Brooklyn. So what if it is only first-time homebuyers? The thing you need to watch is inventory. As long as existing-home inventory is going down, then the banks will not have to dump their homes at a loss, which is all that really matters.

You need to remember that housing in itself can't cause a depression, it is housing bonds or defaulted mortgages on the banks' books and those are going to get better not worse, which is something you cannot wait to have happen before you buy WFC or BAC or

JPMorgan Chase

(JPM) - Get Report

(not

Citigroup

(C) - Get Report

because it doesn't have that much mortgage exposure.)

Of course you can wait for anything. That's fine with me.

But what matters isn't purity or certainty in this business. Because if you wait, you will come in at a much higher level and make much less money.

You know something, there is such a thing as being too skeptical. There is such a thing as being too cynical.

That's what so many people are here. They look for reasons not to buy, and if they can't find them, they look for more. They don't believe in moves that are happening and have already had. They don't believe in how bottoms are formed. They don't believe in how real estate cycles bottom, and they fight over things that are already finished and declared won by those who bought.

If this were a game about being certain, I will be absolutely dead wrong about everything. Every single thing I write and say.

But it isn't.

It is a game of having a worldview, of anticipation, of making wagers based on previous patterns that have panned out before.

It's an uncomfortable situation. It's so easy to be wrong. But to be certain is to be wrong, per se.

I don't write this to antagonize. I write it simply because you can't afford to be certain, you have never been able to be certain, and make a lot of money.

Those who want to be certain should buy two-year notes, not bonds. Better yet, go buy CDs.

Sorry to be blunt. But certainty is the most dangerous quality you can get if you are trying to beat the market.

Unless, of course, you aren't.

Random musings:

How can

Lincoln National

(LNC) - Get Report

and

Hartford

(HIG) - Get Report

be running with all of that commercial real estate on the books? Maybe it's not that bad? Boy would that fly in the face of everything you've heard. ... I love those Apache guys. So solid.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long BAC, WFC, JPM, HPQ and DVN.

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