Jim Cramer's Best Blogs - TheStreet

Jim Cramer fills his blog on

RealMoney

every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:

  • a gain in oil's loss,
  • the perils of careless chatter, and
  • a trade in tech.

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for information on

RealMoney

, where you can see all the blogs, including Jim Cramer's -- and reader comments -- in real time.

Oil's Loss Is Consumer Plays' Gain

Posted at 2:16 p.m. EDT, July 7, 2009

Sure the consumer is weak. No kidding. Tell me something -- in the immortal words of Chris Matthews and our own Doug Kass -- I don't know.

But how about this -- what happens if oil goes to where it was before the big manipulation? What if it goes to $45?

Image placeholder title

That means you can make a lot more money on the oil-user side: retail like

Kohls

(KSS) - Get Report

,

J.C. Penney's

(JCP) - Get Report

and

Macy's

(M) - Get Report

; restaurants like

Brinker

(EAT) - Get Report

and

Darden

(DRI) - Get Report

; apparel like

Jones

(JNY)

,

VF Corp.

and

Nike

(NKE) - Get Report

; as well as anything that goes into

Best Buy

(BBY) - Get Report

.

You also get some terrific pin action in anything that needs to be delivered -- all packaged goods -- and anything that uses plastic:

Procter & Gamble

(PG) - Get Report

,

Colgate

(CL) - Get Report

(already on the move) and, of course,

Pepsi

(PEP) - Get Report

, which reports this week.

Kellogg's

(K) - Get Report

fuel costs exceed its grain costs per box of cereal.

Of course, the problem is you feel the decline in oil first as

Exxon Mobil

(XOM) - Get Report

,

Chevron

(CVX) - Get Report

,

ConocoPhillips

(COP) - Get Report

and

BP

(BP) - Get Report

are now hugely weighted in the market. And we don't know if $45 is right. We just know that that's the level the oil stocks are signaling.

You want the pure play? Take a look at

Cracker Barrel

(CBRL) - Get Report

: killed with higher oil prices as it is levered more to gasoline than just about any consumer play. It's bought back a lot of stock and its labor and food costs are going lower.

Pure play. Not exciting, though, like trading

Occidental Petroleum

(OXY) - Get Report

or

National Oilwell Varco

(NOV) - Get Report

. But it will most likely be more lucrative.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long VF Corp., Pepsi, BP and Chevron.

Death by Chatter

Posted at 2:57 p.m. EDT, July 8, 2009

Ken Chenault really killed us. The chief of

American Express

(AXP) - Get Report

, who sees everything from credit creation to small-business health to travel and leisure and expense spending, in a great interview with

CNBC

's Erin Burnett made us want to sell everything and go home.

I am not saying that's right. I am saying that Ken Chenault sure as heck didn't need to come on and kibosh the green shoots. He's talking about a turn in late 2010, and if that's the case, stocks -- including his stock -- are way too high.

Plus, he made sure we understood that the president's toughness on credit cards will

hurt

consumers, particularly the poorer consumers, because credit cards are their only hope and the credit card companies simply can't be compensated enough under this new regime to make it worthwhile to issue cards.

I simply didn't hear anything that told me we are seeing anything other than the possibility that things are stabilizing ... and it was just a possibility. Given that the market ran to 8400 on hopes that things are "less bad," this one flies in the face of that analysis. Things have just stabilized at "bad," which means to me that stocks are headed lower.

One interview, one guy, but is there a more important businessman when it comes to the consumer and the small-business potential for a turn?

I can't think of one.

Random musings

: Jimmy Lee, the great

Chase

(JPM) - Get Report

banker, gave us nothing to be happy about either in his interview. Now I am really in a funk! I love that guy!

At the time of publication, Cramer was long JPMorgan.

Tech for a Trade

Posted at 10:08 a.m. EDT, July 10, 2009

SanDisk

(SNDK)

.

Apple

(AAPL) - Get Report

.

Novellus

(NVLS)

.

Dell

(DELL) - Get Report

.

Seagate

(STX) - Get Report

.

Hewlett-Packard

(HPQ) - Get Report

. These were all pushed and pushed hard today by Wall Street, and I think that you cannot ignore these. (I see Doug Kass

is buying the

PowerShares QQQ Trust

( QQQQ), so he must have the same feel.)

Dan Dicker on Oil

No Place for a D.C. Quick Fix

The Goldman report is very significant and dovetails nicely with what I wrote

this morning about the worst being "in" the market, as it is saying that the enterprise spend, which has been really low, is about to get better and that this kind of news is

not

in the market.

Not only that, the Goldman report is talking about challenging the 2008 peak, a totally bullish call, maybe even over the top, as is the choice of Dell as its key player, because that's arguably the "worst" of techs.

The Morgan Stanley SanDisk report, which predicts an upside surprise for the company, is also very important because SanDisk is more consumer than enterprise. You cannot have these calls without some impact.

I am in agreement with Doug Kass on the QQQQs.

Random musings

: Dan Dicker's got

a great piece on oil

, different from my view. But it is a must-read!

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Goldman Sachs and Hewlett-Pakard.

Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for

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