Jim Cramer fills his blog on
every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:
- a gain in oil's loss,
- the perils of careless chatter, and
- a trade in tech.
for information on
, where you can see all the blogs, including Jim Cramer's -- and reader comments -- in real time.
Oil's Loss Is Consumer Plays' Gain
Posted at 2:16 p.m. EDT, July 7, 2009
Sure the consumer is weak. No kidding. Tell me something -- in the immortal words of Chris Matthews and our own Doug Kass -- I don't know.
But how about this -- what happens if oil goes to where it was before the big manipulation? What if it goes to $45?
That means you can make a lot more money on the oil-user side: retail like
; restaurants like
; apparel like
; as well as anything that goes into
You also get some terrific pin action in anything that needs to be delivered -- all packaged goods -- and anything that uses plastic:
Procter & Gamble
(already on the move) and, of course,
, which reports this week.
fuel costs exceed its grain costs per box of cereal.
Of course, the problem is you feel the decline in oil first as
are now hugely weighted in the market. And we don't know if $45 is right. We just know that that's the level the oil stocks are signaling.
You want the pure play? Take a look at
: killed with higher oil prices as it is levered more to gasoline than just about any consumer play. It's bought back a lot of stock and its labor and food costs are going lower.
Pure play. Not exciting, though, like trading
National Oilwell Varco
. But it will most likely be more lucrative.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long VF Corp., Pepsi, BP and Chevron.
Death by Chatter
Posted at 2:57 p.m. EDT, July 8, 2009
Ken Chenault really killed us. The chief of
, who sees everything from credit creation to small-business health to travel and leisure and expense spending, in a great interview with
's Erin Burnett made us want to sell everything and go home.
I am not saying that's right. I am saying that Ken Chenault sure as heck didn't need to come on and kibosh the green shoots. He's talking about a turn in late 2010, and if that's the case, stocks -- including his stock -- are way too high.
Plus, he made sure we understood that the president's toughness on credit cards will
consumers, particularly the poorer consumers, because credit cards are their only hope and the credit card companies simply can't be compensated enough under this new regime to make it worthwhile to issue cards.
I simply didn't hear anything that told me we are seeing anything other than the possibility that things are stabilizing ... and it was just a possibility. Given that the market ran to 8400 on hopes that things are "less bad," this one flies in the face of that analysis. Things have just stabilized at "bad," which means to me that stocks are headed lower.
One interview, one guy, but is there a more important businessman when it comes to the consumer and the small-business potential for a turn?
I can't think of one.
: Jimmy Lee, the great
banker, gave us nothing to be happy about either in his interview. Now I am really in a funk! I love that guy!
At the time of publication, Cramer was long JPMorgan.
Tech for a Trade
Posted at 10:08 a.m. EDT, July 10, 2009
. These were all pushed and pushed hard today by Wall Street, and I think that you cannot ignore these. (I see Doug Kass
is buying the
PowerShares QQQ Trust
( QQQQ), so he must have the same feel.)
Dan Dicker on Oil
No Place for a D.C. Quick Fix
The Goldman report is very significant and dovetails nicely with what I wrote
this morning about the worst being "in" the market, as it is saying that the enterprise spend, which has been really low, is about to get better and that this kind of news is
in the market.
Not only that, the Goldman report is talking about challenging the 2008 peak, a totally bullish call, maybe even over the top, as is the choice of Dell as its key player, because that's arguably the "worst" of techs.
The Morgan Stanley SanDisk report, which predicts an upside surprise for the company, is also very important because SanDisk is more consumer than enterprise. You cannot have these calls without some impact.
I am in agreement with Doug Kass on the QQQQs.
: Dan Dicker's got
, different from my view. But it is a must-read!
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Goldman Sachs and Hewlett-Pakard.
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