Jim Cramer fills his blog on
every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:
- misconceptions on oil,
- finding a bottom in banks, and
- a retail-driven rally.
for information on
, where you can see all the blogs, including Jim Cramer's -- and reader comments -- in real time.
The Market Is Getting Oil All Wrong
Posted at 3:35 p.m. EDT, June 22, 2009
The Alka Seltzer has been passed out. The "Hangover" -- which by the way is a surprisingly funny movie -- is almost dissipated. But there's still no reason to buy ... yet.
We have some green clues about where the money seems to want to go:
Procter & Gamble
. Those are no doubt in reaction to the decline in oil, which is being taken, every tick down, as evidence that things are getting worse again in the economy.
Tell me you don't want to throttle the people who are in control of stocks right now, the ones who seem to do their best to get it wrong, because oil shouldn't have been in the $70s, at least when it comes to demand. It is true that Mexico is having a decline in oil that's catastrophic. But otherwise, the market is pretty much the same as it was a year ago, but the economies around the world are a lot weaker. Plus natural gas? I mean, where the heck is that one going? I had thought no lower than $3.50.
Given the way the options expiration came down, without a lot of stocks ramping up. I am surprised that there isn't a little shake-off here.
But not yet.
Not with oil.
Not with the wrong-headed people selling the market for reasons they should be buying it.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long GIS.
Staking the Positive Ground on Banks
Posted at 1:53 p.m. EDT, June 23, 2009
The bearish bets on the banks will not pay off, and not just because of the two-year auction that went so well. I am staking out the positive bank ground, and I think that you should buy them now, as I believe the end-of-quarter rally could be upon us, based on the money in -- there is plenty -- and the incredible negativity that will not let up.
What's the fundamental linchpin on this call (as opposed to just agreeing with Dougie)? Why? Why buy here, right now? Because the pace of deterioration is moderating. Which I regard with great comfort. There's something going on that's not in the numbers that makes me feel there could be some upside surprises: the deposit competition. It seems like it could be going away. Every time we get one of these moments where there is stress, there are banks that start paying ultra high interest for hot money to fund their books.
When I spoke to FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair about this on
, she said the FDIC is cracking down on these free riders of the system. That could produce spectacular "turn the lights on, make money" kinds of results. Sure, there isn't a lot of lending going on
. I see it will come with the house-price stabilization that is becoming obvious even to the bears. We will then, as nonperformers start to peak, and deposit competition goes away, be able to build
for earnings. That's what's been lacking more than anything.
I see only one risk to my thesis: commercial real estate. If it is as bad as the bears say, then the residential mortgage bottom won't matter. But I have to tell you, this system has been under stress for an awfully long time, and we haven't seen much of any commercial real estate stress yet. I am wondering it if this won't turn out to be much ado about nothing.
Always keep your eye on California. If the bottom has truly been reached in California real estate, as I think it has, you can only imagine what it means for the models of
Bank of America
and, to a lesser extent,
(Washington Mutual). Sure, I would like to see the refis and the mortgage originations be stronger here, but, as is often the case, people are just trying to game the market. I think those who are holding off will be back.
The thesis is a powerful one. The bears are pressing their bets because the names are so, so volatile. But the short bet, to me, looks like a sucker's bet, and I would move on going into the next quarter.
bark is worse than its bite, as I expect
to rally now.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long BAC, JPM, WFC and QCOM.
Retail -- Yes, Retail -- Gives Us a Telling Rally
Posted at 12:18 p.m. EDT, June 25, 2009
Retail? Now there's an unsung leader. Who would have thought it? We have
Bed Bath & Beyond
reacting to the loss of Linens & Things. How about
moving? And isn't about time that
reacted to the huge number of sales -- remember it is the number of sales that matters -- and started going higher?
This is a much-maligned group because of the rising price of gasoline, even if, as
told us, gasoline prices are down 41% year over year. It's a welcome rally that is suggesting that the selloff is rotation-oriented and that this selloff did begin with some really awful retail numbers.
But that's not the only goodie. As I
tell is a huge one, and it is signaling that we should ignore unemployment and accept that things are going to be better in the second half.
My take: A mixture of end-of-the-quarter markup and a suggestion that, as Bed Bath, even as it was done with expense control and a modicum of better sales, can take us higher and that
we would have gone higher if Darrell Issa hadn't attacked Ben Bernanke yesterday
. It was not the
statement after the meeting, which was good, but the attack on Bernanke that caused the selloff, which, remember, never hit the
I am so repulsed at the attack on Ben Bernanke, who, of course, is the reason why we averted a second Great Depression. Do these guys know what MAC (material adverse effect clause) means, by the way? ... Really like the new guy from Zimmer running
, a stock that I think can go much higher. ... Utilities on the move after the Goldman Sachs call. Pecking order:
. Least cap-and-trade problems of the majors. ...
done. It is worth double figures. Hold on to it!
At the time of publication, Cramer was long HD.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for
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