Jim Cramer fills his blog on
every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:
- the rubber-band market,
- Bank of America as fulcrum, and
- skittish holders.
for information on
, where you can see all the blogs, including Jim Cramer's -- and reader comments -- in real time.
The Rubber-Band Market
Posted at 2:43 p.m. EDT, May 18, 2009
The resilience of this market is overwhelming at times. Last week all we heard was that all the secondaries were overwhelming the market.
Today the banking sector -- the most hard-hit by the secondaries -- is on fire, confirming that the supply doesn't damage the story if the story's a good one.
Or how about the natural gas stocks? These have more lives than your average cat. Here we go again with the rally in
-- what a bounce back -- and the fantastic comeback in
. Keep an eye on
, still weighed down by the secondary but clearly a coiled spring ready to happen.
Then there is
. People sold it on the revenues, but it is right back to where it was sold and is ready to roll again.
was hammered for whatever reason, and now it is bouncing back -- as is
, which I think is way too cheap vis-a-vis the quarter.
And then there is the housing cohort:
Black & Decker
. I know that
said that it didn't have good indoor sales -- plumbing and cabinets -- but can that be so far behind that it wouldn't be worth buying a little
I also see the restaurant group ramping again, with
catching a bid. You know that
my favorite there.
Lots to like. Lots to buy. And just when everyone had given up on this market because of a belief that we had gone up too far too fast.
Conventional wisdom fools people again.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Home Depot, Yum! Brands and Wal-Mart.
Bank of America Is Now the Fulcrum
Posted at 8:01 a.m. EDT, May 20, 2009
Today is make or break for the short-sellers, the SKFers, the bears on banks. I cannot stress how important the
Bank of America
deal is. The syndicate desk placed this stock with great hands, restricting flippers to one-fifth of their orders and giving mutual funds only about a quarter of what they wanted. Plus, given the stealth selling that BAC did ahead of this, the company seems done for now -- maybe forever -- although it can't give back TARP funds. However, it should be able to do bond financing that will put it in a good position to do so. And with the velocity of sales picking up at the same time as the new housing starts go down -- stunning figures there -- it is possible that we could see a reversal of some of Bank of America's soured loans while we see what happens with a big lender begins to get a major share of what can be a lucrative mortgage market. We might look back at BAC at $10 and say, "That was our last good chance to buy it," as there are many,
analysts set to reiterate their buys this morning.
On the other hand, if people have to sell other banks in order to raise the capital for this surprise offering, and the bears sense it, then they can come flying in from the get-go with puts and the
ProShares UltraShort Financials
and lean on the group, which is awash in new stock that people have profits in.
I know if I were a short-seller I would do my best to go after the weakest players, the ones that have credit cards (because of the new federal rules) and the ones that are underwater from the pricings. You can see the shorts targeting
for the former -- even though it is incredibly well run -- and
Bank of New York
for the latter. I am sure the shorts want to operate on
, which always seems like it is prey in these situations. The stock's still well above the pricing of the secondary, but I don't think it will have much support here if BAC breaks down -- the two banks look too much alike.
can be used to color tech ugly, that would leave only oil as a group that can't be brought down.
Remember what got us up here: banks, oil and tech. If two out of three break down, we will
be able to mount an advance.
But if Bank of America is
-tight -- to use an analogy to one of the best secondaries I have ever seen priced -- then we are off to the races, because this is the last big slug of bank equity that needs to be done unless the economy takes a huge fall from here.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Wells Fargo and Hewlett-Packard.
Skittish Holders Could Mean More Selling
Posted at 2:26 p.m. EDT, May 21, 2009
Political risk and unemployment claims are putting a more severe recession back on the table. It's that simple -- the papers are filled with President Obama's plans, which are all well and good when business is better but not so hot when we are just out of a depression.
I did a video this morning on steel and cap-and-trade, and it keeps things front and center that major companies like
are in the cross hairs of the government. Every day new plans that kibosh major companies are being floated, and it's beginning to get to stock owners. The credit card assault has many people reeling because it is so game-changing.
The U.K. downgrade is a true blindside, too, and no one is thinking, "Just wait, that's typical, very late downgrade." Instead, there is panic in the air.
I worry about how people will want to take some profits going into Memorial Day weekend, and I can't blame them. I am willing to let this one go down without me for now, and am selling some industrials to get a little more defensive and a little more cash.
At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for
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