Jim Cramer fills his blog on
every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:
- companies immune to the credit pain;
- stocks on sale; and
- major lenders.
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Companies With Capital Won't Feel This Pain
Originally published on Nov. 5 at 8:29 a.m. EST
If you don't need money, you don't feel this one. If you don't need the credit markets, you don't feel it.
That's the central dilemma for all who short the market, all who sell the futures and all who think this market belongs much lower.
If your company is liquid and your stock is high, you can pretty much do whatever you want. You can pick and chose among the derivative chaos. You can stand there and buy your stock as the futures take it down.
The world is your oyster.
Consider companies like
. They have the capital to stand there and buy everything and they do. So does a
. They must sit back and laugh in Atlanta that they are even part of the S&P futures meltdown that seems to go on every day.
must feel the same. They can stand there at the post of the
New York Stock Exchange
and every time it looks bad they can say, "We will buy 10% of the volume." And then the stock bounces right back with supply taken out.
Microsoft is the best example. This behemoth has just put on 7 quick points in an uncertain time because it has taken out so much stock and its earnings are accelerating. It doesn't know what to do with all of its cash.
Contrast that with
, which was returning the very cash to the shareholders that it needed for reserves. The futures, of course, treat these companies exactly the same way, which is just kind of ludicrous when you think about it.
It is why the futures have created such opportunity of late, you simply buy the ones that don't need cash and sell the ones that do, and you have a winning hand.
It's such a great litmus test that you can pretty much determine stock price performance by it.
Consider this pattern today as the futures want to take everything down. They will be throwing out the Cokes and the
and the Washington Mutuals.
You just have to figure out the right levels. The companies themselves have it even easier.
They want everything they can get their hands on.
with a huge loss. I would normally think "goner," but these bad ones have lives of their own!
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Citigroup.
Falling Futures Put Good Stocks on Sale
Originally published on Nov. 7 at 8:14 a.m. EST
I don't want to be too glib: the futures are down off the dollar -- best coverage by our own Marc Chandler in Columnist Conversation -- and you are going to have to take advantage of the fact that the
is going to take
down, including the stocks that benefit from the surge in commodities and the weak dollar.
That means you can get a
below where you should be able to buy it. You can snap up
for less than it should be.
Oh, and if you can exclude commodity costs -- think of
-- you are going to be able to buy anti-dollar stocks below where they should be.
The broad-brush selloffs we have been seeing make a huge amount of sense on a macro level. They are sorely lacking as a way to make sense of the different components of the market. Does anyone think that
sells fewer planes when the dollar's on sale? Do you really believe that a foreign-sale-based
is going to get killed.
? Sells more product.
? Sells more product.
Or do you think that
? Don't be silly.
the U.S. of 1990 when 6% of the GDP -- construction of commercial buildings -- was wiped out by the S&L crisis. There are plenty of stocks that simply don't get hurt on this stuff.
That's why you have to keep your eyes open here for bargains.
Don't get too caught up in the futures. They have been so wrong in both directions. Why should today be different?
: It is amazing that few of the European companies out there have been buying our assets. We are so on sale. But the Europeans tend not to want to make a move until they feel a bottom has been reached. So far, very right.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long ConocoPhillips, Hologic, Altria and Transocean.
We Can't Have Major Lenders Fail
Originally published on Nov. 7 at 6:59 p.m. EST
Yeah, you don't need me to know it is bad.
said the wrong thing about financial services, certainly off message for Mr. Chambers. It would be one thing if the stock hadn't run, it has. Now it must go lower,
even though it really wasn't that bad
. It had been gunned, though, and everyone I know is hiding in tech.
I didn't like the revenue number from
, and that's going to hurt the infra group. Someone's going to say that MDR could be the beginning of the end of the
But in the end, it is the same thing it always is: mortgages.
, after the bell, is a black hole. Who the heck knows what they really have? Maybe they will even tell us.
wasn't any worse than the papers hinted, but they said it would get worse. Thanks!
In the end, it always comes down to the same thing: Are we going to avoid 1990 or not?
Today was a day when the answer was pretty loud:
Will the government start recognizing the potential failure of major lending institutions? Doesn't sound like it from these
gov'nors! What do they need? What kind of road map do they need? What kind of cry from the heavens?
For heaven's sake,
was down four points today. That's what happened in 1990! Just like that. Don't even look at the mortgage insurers, you will get scared.
The center, frankly, ain't holding. In a 1990 scenario, we go down 12%. We revisit, if not take out, the summer lows. We have mitigating factors -- rest-of-worlders, high growers like
Research In Motion
and the like -- but it can't offset the financials. At least not yet.
My advice: If the Fed doesn't shut up, if the Fed guys keep talking glibly, then get ready to check out those summer lows.
We've cut rates. It has helped some. Not enough. They have to keep cutting. Or more of these kinds of days are directly ahead. With no relief from the Fed, I think a 5% correction from here would be reasonable as part of the 1990 scenario that I so much don't want to have happen.
But if we get a sense that they might move to avert 1990, tomorrow's the moment to buy because it is still not too late to avoid 1990!
At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in stocks mentioned
Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for
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