Jim Cramer's Best Blogs - TheStreet

Jim Cramer's Best Blogs

Catch up to his latest thinking on the hottest topics of the past week.
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Jim Cramer fills his blog on

RealMoney

every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week, he blogged on

it being the wrong time to buy tech

,

why Countrywide is a buy

,

Apple deserving a breakout

,

picking Pfizer's rivals

and

Level 3's still-good story

.

Click here for information on

RealMoney.com

, where you can see all the blogs, including Jim Cramer's -- and reader comments -- in real time.

Not the Time to Buy Tech

Originally published on 2/5/2007 at 11:23 a.m.

You want an untold story? How about the underperformance of tech, despite the endless attempts of people to try to flog the story as a major part of the bull market of 2007? In fact, it would be better to be in the homebuilders or the cyclicals; these are the fantastic performers of 2007. Same with the oils. I would take the steels over the semis any day of the week.

Check out the SOX and the

Semiconductor HOLDRS

(SMH) - Get Report

, the tech bellwethers. They peaked at the beginning of the year and haven't come near taking out their highs. Why is that? I would emphasize that we are right at

the seasonal change of heart for tech and you aren't going to get the outperformance you are looking for from this group.

If you don't believe this -- and you probably don't -- take a look at

Seagate

(STX) - Get Report

and

Komag

(KOMG)

. The latter reported a good number but didn't give good guidance. That was totally fatal and the stock has turned into a major-league bow-wow.

Seagate, on the other hand, put up gigantic numbers and guided up huge, yet till is down from where it reported -- actually down a lot as a percentage basis.

Microsoft's

(MSFT) - Get Report

not doing anything either, and is starting to head down now.

Hewlett-Packard's

(HPQ) - Get Report

been stung by the

Dell

(DELL) - Get Report

news of Michael's return and is struggling to get back to where it was.

Qualcomm's

(QCOM) - Get Report

gone from $39 to $37 and has failed to rally on good news. Same with

EMC

(EMC)

. Same with

Google

(GOOG) - Get Report

.

Don't believe the hype. This is

not

the moment to buy tech, despite the hype.

Better to look elsewhere as the seasonal gravity once again takes its toll.

Random musings:

One small exception to this downturn is

MRV Communications

(MRVC)

. That's a restructuring story, though. ... College students, listen up!

RealMoney

is offering you something special... a free subscription through May 31, 2007. The only requirement: You must have an email address that ends in .edu. Email

collegetour@thestreet.com

to accept my personal invitation to come read my blog every day, plus all the other writers on that great site. Pass it on!

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Hewlett-Packard.

Why Countrywide Is Still a Buy

Originally published on 2/6/2007 at 7:32 a.m.

The conundrum of

Countrywide

(CFC)

going up even as another subprime dealer,

Mortgage Lenders Network

, goes under, may be answered by a simple tenet: The weak hands are going under, leaving the biggest and best to triumph.

When I pulled up with Angelo Mozilo, the man who built Countrywide -- the man who

is

Countrywide, some would say -- we joked about how strong Countrywide's business is because it has always "modeled" the bad loans better than anyone. One of the mistakes made by the analyst community is believing that any loans that go under could be death to a lender. In truth, the good ones model what will happen under a lot of scenarios, and it is pretty clear that Countrywide has the best models. Always has.

When the company's stock got bid up on takeover rumors, despite insider selling, I expected it to come right back down.

It didn't because what's really happening is the long-awaited shakeout. There have been too many crummy players in this business. You are seeing the small ones go under -- and some larger private ones, too. What you aren't seeing is the pullback in the major brokerages' business that is emblematic of a recognition that the margins got too bad in the subprimers that they bought to get the flow for mortgage back. You heard this if you listened closely on all the big brokers' conference calls.

If the brokers are pulling back and the smaller independents are going belly up, that leaves Countrywide to reap the benefits of the inevitable expansion in margin that comes from the end of the price wars for subprime.

That's why it is going up. That's why it will continue to go up. That's why Countrywide is

still

a buy, despite the problems in housing and the headlines about how bad this business is.

At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.

Apple Deserves a Breakout

Originally published on 2/7/2007 at 1:44 p.m.

Could this be the long-awaited breakout of

Apple

(AAPL) - Get Report

? This stock has been, with the possible exception of

Google

(GOOG) - Get Report

, the most profound disappointment of 2007.

The froth of the iPhone coupled with a belief that the new device must be a failure because of its price point -- even as my teenage daughters tell me otherwise -- has kept a huge lid on the story.

I think that lid could be sliding off.

Here's why: We are able, now, to see the power of Steve Jobs. He owns a whole industry with this iTunes, a

whole

industry. Who can imagine what will happen when we get to iTV?!?

Jobs is the most important man in media; therefore, Apple is the most important company in media -- again, with the possible exception of Google.

To me that's worth more of a premium than Apple currently sells for.

Indeed, the great mystery of Apple is how darned cheap it is vs. its growth rate. Apple sells at 26 times next year's earnings estimate, with a 20%-plus growth rate. That makes no sense and reflects a belief that iPhone's a joke like

Microsoft's

(MSFT) - Get Report

Zune. It isn't.

What people are missing is what was in that great article in

The New York Times

over the weekend about

Motorola

(MOT)

and how the Razr wasn't fashionable.

Jobs, and Apple, have a sense of style. Jobs has an eye. The iPhone will sell at a premium and get it, the same way

Tiffany

(TIF) - Get Report

sells its goods at a premium and gets it, or if you want to use an analogy for the younger generation, how

Abercrombie & Fitch

(ANF) - Get Report

gets you to pay much more for its jeans than you should.

The fashion price-to-earnings ratio is lacking for Apple. The shorts have been laying all over it -- and Microsoft and

Hewlett-Packard

(HPQ) - Get Report

and Google -- for weeks now.

I think the rude awakening is coming.

Random musings:

One of the reasons I see a quick short-selling rout is the way that

Intevac

(IVAC) - Get Report

is trading. After the

Komag

(KOMG)

disappointment, after the blowout quarter that

Seagate

(STX) - Get Report

had and the sad aftermath, if you were a short-seller you had to believe that shorting Intevac was risk-free. Oops! Glass half-full!

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Hewlett-Packard.

Pick Pfizer's Rivals

Originally published on 2/8/2007 at 9:25 a.m.

Everybody wanted

Pfizer

(PFE) - Get Report

! They all wanted to know about Pfizer. I kid you not!

You know I always

play Lightning Round wherever I go. One guy will ask me about a stock in the airport, and no sooner do I answer than the next guy has a question and then the guy after that. Sure enough, there's a dozen questions, maybe two.

On

this trip to University of Virginia for the "Mad Money" Back to School Tour, every time we played I got asked about Pfizer -- maybe seven times. Again, I'm not kidding.

Perhaps because I had spent the afternoon with

Celgene

(CELG) - Get Report

COO Bob Hugin, in each case I shot back Celgene.

The comparison can't be lost on people. Think about it: Pfizer's been making its so-called "upside" surprises by firing people. Celgene's been making its

real

upside surprises by hiring people and selling more.

Pfizer's earnings could go down big in the out years as Lipitor comes off patent and nothing of any size replaces it. Celgene has 75 trials out there for Revlimid alone, its homegrown blood -cancer disease cure. Hugin says there are six other compounds coming that could also be huge. It's hard to believe that the earnings for this company won't be much bigger in six years, maybe much, much bigger.

But Pfizer has that yield and that brand name, and even though Celgene is a multi-billion dollar company, it's widely perceived as a one-trick nobody that can never take the Revlimid franchise much further than some international sales.

I believe that's wrong. More important, when you buy a drug stock you don't do it for the yield; the only reason Pfizer's yield is so large is because the stock has fallen so much.

I like

Gilead

(GILD) - Get Report

. It's now my biotech stock of the year, and it is on a torrid ramp.

I believe

Amgen's

(AMGN) - Get Report

cheap; so's

Genentech

(DNA)

.

Genzyme

(GENZ)

seems solid to me. And Celgene's done nothing since that last quarter.

All of these stocks on their

bad

days are better than Pfizer.

I wish my Lightning Round friends had heard me. But somehow I think that today, they still own Pfizer, and I have failed in my mission.

Random musings:

Look, you can see from this experience that you've got to get as many angles on a stock as possible. Here's one more tool to help:

TheStreet.com Ratings Screener. Use it to take a fresh look at the stocks you hold now (like Pfizer) or to find exactly the stock you're looking for.

At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this post.

Level 3's Story Is Still Good

Originally published on 2/9/2007 at 10:37 a.m.

Sometimes you get a stock that runs so much that people sell it

even if

they know the story is good. Other times, people sell it without even bothering to find out if the story is still good.

That's how I felt about the darned

Level 3

(LVLT)

earnings conference call Thursday. Level 3 had a very good quarter with lots of good things happening, including lots of solid integration of disparate deals put together to extend the terrific franchise that is going to be THE on-line video company.

Of course, the losses are substantial. No kidding. That was forecast. But what's missing is that the interest rate environment is so good that Level 3 can refinance almost everything that it can and fix this balance sheet in a form that will change everything for the better.

The deals this company made have turned it into a telephone powerhouse that will generate giant cash flow. I don't think it will have to lay out a lot of capital because most of the properties it has are fresh.

I'd use this dip to get in. This is the kind of story that's not stopping here, even as traders and less knowledgeable people bolted before the darned conference call!

Random musings:

College students, listen up!

RealMoney

is offering you something special... a free subscription through May 31, 2007. The only requirement: You must have an email address that ends in .edu. Email

collegetour@thestreet.com

to accept my personal invitation to come read my blog every day, plus all the other writers on that great site. Pass it on!

At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this post.

Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for

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