NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Jim Cramer and I were talking about $40 oil and whether that number is possible in this cratering oil market and what it would mean.

I had to agree with Jim that the number is possible, even though there is upwards of 25 million barrels a day of production that is uneconomic at such a tiny price. But just because the fundamentals do not support a market price is no reason to believe that it won't be reached.

That is the wild nature of markets and particularly the oil market, which has a strong history of overdoing fundamental price boundaries. It clearly overdid it to the upside in 2007, when prices breached $145 dollars a barrel. And it is also clearly overdoing it again, with prices already under $50 a barrel.

There are five inputs I pointed out to Jim that have led to the massive and rapid drop in oil prices: the dollar, overproduction here in the U.S., slow growth in China and Europe, Saudi Arabia and OPEC and the end of speculative trading by investment banks.

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Of those five, only one of them is likely to reverse any time soon -- the production targets here in the United States.

But Jim pointed out to me, correctly, that production numbers will take a very long time to come down. In the world of oil the one thing you cannot readily admit to is a drop in production targets.

I put it simply for Jim in the video above: "Those that are the first to admit their production is crashing will be the first to see their stock go to zero."

That's a tough game of chicken to be playing.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.