Participants on Jan. 29 included host Brenda Buttner, Jim Cramer, Herb Greenberg, Adam Lashinsky, Gary B. Smith, Dave Kansas and guest John Manley. The transcript is unedited, and phonetic spellings are indicated with a (ph).

BRENDA BUTTNER, HOST:

Up next, information you need to make smart investing decisions. Slowdown in Silicon Valley. No, that's not advice to speeders, rather warnings from some big tech companies.

Qualcomm

and say growth just isn't what it used to be.

Who's next with the bad news? And what does this mean to all your tech investments? We'll get the word on the streets.

Also, Super Bowl, Schmuper Bowl. We've got the stock Super Bowl right here. While St. Louis and Tennessee fight it out on the field, the biggest companies from those cities square off on this show.

But first, the headlines with

Fox News Live

.

BUTTNER:

Hi, everyone, I'm Brenda Buttner, and you're connected to "TheStreet.com." We're here to help you make your own decisions in the stock market.

And what a rough week for all you investors. So let's get the Word on TheStreet.

With us from

TheStreet.com

financial Web site, Jim Cramer, who also manages the

Cramer Berkowitz

hedge fund, Senior Columnist Herb Greenberg and Editor-in-Chief Dave Kansas. Also joining us, John Manley, who is chairman of the Equity Strategy Committee at

Salomon Smith Barney

.

Welcome to everyone.

Well, first topic: Is there trouble ahead for tech? The market was off last week with Friday being a really ugly day, the

Dow

and

Nasdaq

with major selloffs. In fact, Friday's Nasdaq drop was the second-biggest point loss ever.

There are interest-rate fears and also some warnings from heavy hitters in tech land.

Dell

and Qualcomm both expect weaker-than-expected sales and a slowdown in growth.

Jim Cramer, you have been behind tech all the way. What do you say now?

JIM CRAMER, THESTREET.COM:

Hmm...

(LAUGHTER)

CRAMER:

No, it was a bad week, no denying it. Although, I was buying on Friday...

BUTTNER:

You were?

CRAMER:

... near the close because I thought there was an overreaction. I'm not buying classic high-multiple tech. I was on a Qualcomm conference call this week, an

EMC

conference call this week.

These conference calls weren't that great. They were supposed to be fabulous. Everything was supposed to be fabulous. And it just turned out to be good.

That's not good enough, given where stocks are. This was a shattering week for the high-multiple bulls. And I'm clearing out of that turf.

BUTTNER:

So there's more pain to come?

CRAMER:

On that territory.

BUTTNER:

Yes.

CRAMER:

I don't believe there's more pain to come in the lower-multiple. Now low-multiple, lower-multiple.

HERB GREENBERG, SENIOR COLUMNIST:

You said they were supposed to have great news. And you were expecting so much. What does that really tell us? What can we really believe in this kind of a marketplace, what people are really telling us, Jim?

CRAMER:

I believe that expectations got so, so high that companies just can't do what people want.

JOHN MANLEY, SALOMON SMITH BARNEY:

But isn't this the thing that when it finally ends -- if it finally ends, isn't this the way it's going to end? It's going to be something like this where the numbers just don't quite reach on this.

CRAMER:

John, I totally agree. I think this Qualcomm, which I have made a lot of money in to the point where I junked my

Motorola

and bought the fall. And I mean, that's how excited I was. I was a Qualcomm

Star Trek

guy.

It's over. It's over. They can't do the numbers.

DAVE KANSAS, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF:

So you talked about not as high-multiples stocks. I was looking at

Microsoft

,

Intel

, down pretty sharply from their highs. Is now a time to start looking at the Microsofts, the Intels?

CRAMER:

I think yes. I bought Microsoft on Friday. I bought Intel on Friday. I bought some

Sun Micro

on Friday.

I was selling my Red Hot B2B 30, blue tech...

BUTTNER:

So old tech. It's old tech...

CRAMER:

... 30 stock. Old tech...

BUTTNER:

... vs. new tech. Now...

CRAMER:

... I like. What I really bought this week was Salomon's -- I bought Citicorp.

BUTTNER:

Right.

CRAMER:

... I bought

Citigroup

.

BUTTNER:

... There were banks and drugs. There were a couple of bright spots, yes?

CRAMER:

They were great. The drugs were terrific. The banks were terrific.

GREENBERG:

So maybe values start meaning something here, the things that nobody cared about.

BUTTNER:

John...

MANLEY:

The other 60% of the market.

(LAUGHTER)

BUTTNER:

John, as January goes, so goes the rest of the year? Some people believe that. What do you think?

MANLEY:

Well...

BUTTNER:

It's been quite a volatile market.

MANLEY:

... yes and no. I mean, it's a bad January. No melt-up this year. This is the worst January since 1990 and the first time we haven't been above water in the

S&P

since '78. So we're off to a slow start.

I think we have to bring the consumer back into line. I think the economy is a little bit out of control, not generating inflation. But it literally is out of control.

BUTTNER:

Right.

CRAMER:

You're right.

BUTTNER:

Jim...

CRAMER:

... I didn't think the

Fed

has a handle on it. That's what I felt on Friday. Fed doesn't have a handle on it.

MANLEY:

They solved the Y2K problem before it happened. We got another whole bunch of follow-ons because of that.

BUTTNER:

OK, Jim, it's Monday morning, what happens?

CRAMER:

Look, I am a strong believer that people are going to gravitate to things they understand. There was a terrific banking conference that your firm put on last week where I saw companies that are selling at eight, nine, 10 times earnings.

I'm talking about banks that are doing incredibly well that don't have the yield curve problem that you think you have. I brought

Fannie Mae

into the chaos. I brought

J.P. Morgan

into the chaos. I did not buy the Qualcomms...

BUTTNER:

Yes.

CRAMER:

... you know, just to use that as blue (ph).

MANLEY:

Amazing...

BUTTNER:

I'm sorry, we've got to get on to our next topic, which is the S&P 500. Last week,

Biogen

and

Harley-Davidson

were added to the index at the expense of two companies that were considered out of date. Both new S&P editions shot higher right after. So who's next?

We asked that question to the readers of

TheStreet.com

Web site. And an overwhelming 60% said fiber-optic tech company

JDS Uniphase

is the likely choice.

Herb, do you agree? Do you care?

GREENBERG:

I do not care. I don't know why anyone would really care about who's going to be the next one in the S&P...

BUTTNER:

Well, you can make money.

GREENBERG:

... Yes, you can make money. Oh, if the S&P is going up, you can make money. Of course, I understand the cash flow all coming into these stocks because they're in the S&P 500. But is that any way to invest?

MANLEY:

Scary, isn't it? It is. It is...

GREENBERG:

It scared the heck out of me.

MANLEY:

... Especially if they split it at the same time. Won't that be amazing?

BUTTNER:

Yes, but if you had bought

Yahoo!

when it went in, you would have made 100 points...

GREENBERG:

Great. But that's not the reason to own.

BUTTNER:

... What do you say, Jim? Do you look at this?

CRAMER:

I voted for Just Don't Sell Us (ph), which is what we call JDS Uniphase.

(LAUGHTER)

CRAMER:

I voted a half-dozen times. Though I care passionately about what's going to be added. It's so passionately that I was almost suicidal when

Conexant Systems

got out and I sold my Conexant when Conexant got out on Thursday.

But can you gain? Absolutely not. It cannot be gained.

BUTTNER:

He doesn't take this seriously.

KANSAS:

And it's really -- and it's a short-term thing. I mean...

BUTTNER:

Right.

(CROSSTALK)

KANSAS:

... I think it counts. It counts for a little while.

BUTTNER:

But if you -- it does...

KANSAS:

I mean, you can't deny...

BUTTNER:

... Look what happened to Yahoo!, though.

MANLEY:

Twenty years ago were we looking at this sort of thing? Look at how much the world has changed.

That's the thing that's sort of scary to me, the fact that we have this much interest in what's coming and going on.

Yes, it matters. You can make money. But it's kind of scary, isn't it?

BUTTNER:

OK, that's got to be the last Word on TheStreet today.

John Manley from Salomon Smith Barney, you'll be back with us in a few minutes to let us know what stocks you think are worth adding come Monday morning.

But up next, Tennessee and St. Louis do battle right here on "TheStreet.com." No, not the football teams. It's the Stock Super Bowl. And you don't want to miss it -- right after this short break.

BUTTNER:

Welcome back.

Sure, the

Tennessee Titans

and

St. Louis Rams

are going for the Super Bowl on some other network. But we've got your Stock Super Bowl right here.

Which is a better investment for you,

FedEx

, which is based in Tennessee, or

Budweiser

, which of course is in St. Louis?

With us to break down the match-up, in Washington, are "Chartman" Gary B. Smith, and in San Francisco are Silicon Valley columnist Adam Lashinsky.

Gary and Adam do not own any of the stocks in this segment.

OK, fellas, do we even need to watch the game? Or can we know who's going to win by seeing which city has the better stock? I mean, people care more about stocks than sports these days.

Gary, what do you think?

GARY B. SMITH, "CHARTMAN":

I would encourage people just to tape this show and watch it six or seven times, to be quite honest with you.

(LAUGHTER)

SMITH:

But let me take a look at the St. Louis team, Budweiser. There is no bigger fan of the product than myself.

(LAUGHTER)

SMITH:

It is the king of beers. Unfortunately, it is not the king of stocks. You know, here's an interesting thing about this chart.

If you had asked me a few months about Bud, I would have loved it. I would have said, "Hey, it's breaking out. It's looking good."

But here's a chart lesson. Every day gives you a new data point. You are allowed to change your mind.

What it did was, it was a false breakout. It didn't go anywhere. And it dropped by into that dull, downward trend channel.

And I'll tell you what, there is nothing to like about this stock other than if you're short. So I would say drink the beer, avoid the stock.

BUTTNER:

All right, Adam, Gary thinks Bud is an underdog. But we could have known he'd be a man of champagne tastes, I'd say.

(LAUGHTER)

BUTTNER:

Now you've got the ball. What do you say? What are the fundamentals on this one?

ADAM LASHINSKY, SILICON VALLEY COLUMNIST:

Well, you know, Brenda, I spend all my time looking at technology stocks that have triple-digit growth. So it's a little bit strange to be looking at a company like Anheuser-Busch that has 2 to 3% volume shipment growth.

But growth is growth. In football terms, that's kind of like running left, running right, running up the center and still getting the first down.

This is a company that's trading at a discount to the market. A lot of analysts I surveyed think that it can easily get to $80 a share just by performing. And finally, you've got to love those Clydesdales, don't you?

SMITH:

I love them.

BUTTNER:

Absolutely the true fundamental.

All right, let's look at Tennessee's FedEx. Gary, I know you saw that so-called Music City miracle, you know, that incredible winning kick off return that the Titans had against Buffalo. Do you expect any miracles ahead for FedEx?

SMITH:

I don't know if it's miracles. I think FedEx had its miracle last year when it was FedEx.com or whatever.

But here's the thing. You need to take a look at sometimes the long-term view of the chart. And FedEx did have a great tail end of 1999. It broke out.

But what it's done, it's just pulled back to the breakout area. That's OK. In fact, sometimes it gives you a low-risk entry.

With FedEx, I would say anything in the low 40s, in fact, maybe even the high 30s, where I think it ended up this past Friday, would be a good low-risk entry. You figure then it could go all the way back up to 60.

If it drops, then you get out. But right now I think is the time to buy FedEx.

BUTTNER:

OK, your time horizon on that 60?

(LAUGHTER)

BUTTNER:

You know I've got to pin you down on this.

SMITH:

Oh, give it a couple of weeks...

LASHINSKY:

Well, he doesn't understand time horizons.

SMITH:

... No, I would say a couple of months.

(LAUGHTER)

BUTTNER:

All right, Adam. Do you agree, or is this Hail Mary time for FedEx?

LASHINSKY:

This is a good example of where the fundamentals do matter. Gary is quite right. That was a fundamental comment you made, by the way, Gary. The stock traded up as an Internet stock...

SMITH:

Stumbled into it.

LASHINSKY:

... toward the end of last year. But it didn't work out quite as planned. The company had some sluggish growth.

And furthermore, it ran into tough fuel prices. That's bad for a company that flies a lot of planes and drives a lot of trucks.

Competition is not abating for FedEx. So it's going to add home delivery. That's going to be very expensive. And that's fundamental. You know they're going to be spending a lot of money. You don't know if it's going to pay off.

Finally, the company that was FedEx and became FDX is going to go back to being FedEx. Name changes are cosmetic and don't necessarily make money for investors, especially not in the near term.

BUTTNER:

OK, so that little football game that they're having, any thoughts on what this match-up tells us about that? Gary, you first.

SMITH:

Well, I think it definitely says to go with the Titans. But I'll tell you what, I think the best TV on that day, I think it's going to be "The Beltway Boys." That's what I'll be watching.

(LAUGHTER)

BUTTNER:

You are a loyal man. All right. OK.

Adam, what do you say? Who are you voting for?

LASHINSKY:

Well, I'm saying that this Bud is for the Rams, Brenda. But of course, the big winner is that other network that you mentioned earlier for getting so much advertising revenue...

BUTTNER:

Right.

LASHINSKY:

... from one television show.

BUTTNER:

From all those dot-coms. OK...

LASHINSKY:

Exactly.

BUTTNER:

... thanks, guys. And let's hope our Stock Super Bowl gets the same ratings as the real game.

SMITH:

Thanks, Brenda.

BUTTNER:

And we'll see you both in a couple of minutes for predictions.

But up next, if you buy Monday, will you be seeing green or just feel a little blue? Stock Drill is up next.

BUTTNER:

Welcome back. It's time now for Stock Drill.

Salomon Smith Barney equity strategist John Manley is back with two stocks that he thinks you may want to check out. They are PC and hardware maker

IBM

and oil driller

Schlumberger

.

Manley's firm does business with IBM on occasion. Also back to put those stock picks to the test,

TheStreet.com's

Jim Cramer and Herb Greenberg. Jim and Herb do not own either stock.

OK, thanks for joining us.

The first pick, IBM. Talk about old tech. Sales were down though in the fourth quarter, and they were in software and services, which is a bit of a surprise.

MANLEY:

It is. But it's the fourth quarter. So we'll have this once every 1,000 years is the way I look at it. If you look at what's happened to IBM in the last year, growth expectations are up about 300 basis points. It's gone from a 10% grower to a 13% grower.

It hasn't been much of a stock in that particular time. It hasn't kept -- you're paying less than a market multiple for a company that's really seeing some acceleration. That's the way I want to have my exposure.

GREENBERG:

You know, John, it's easy to blame this on the fourth quarter. Everyone had a sort of weak fourth quarter.

But when you look down the line at this whole company, I mean, it wasn't just one little area. It was all the way across the line. How do you know it's not the beginning of a trend and maybe they're sort of, you know...

MANLEY:

Well, you always wonder that things are changing. But you're not paying that much to see it first. I still think on balance you have pretty good exposure in the places you want it.

They still have very good management. This is a company that was nothing four or five years ago. I think the numbers on balance will have an upward bias going forward.

So I mean, it's a combination. I'm trying to have my cake and eat it too...

CRAMER:

John...

MANLEY:

... I want to have low tech...

CRAMER:

... When I looked over that quarter, my firm was long when the quarters reported. The stock went up, and frankly I thought it went up a little too much given how bad the quarter was. And I sold my stock.

One thing I was amazed, though, was that their software business was not strong at all. What happened there? That's not all Y2K. Are they getting beaten by somebody?

MANLEY:

They may be losing some share. And I don't know where that is.

But again, you focus -- I think the quarter is a bizarre quarter...

CRAMER:

Yes.

MANLEY:

... And I think it's bizarre for everyone. There were so many cross currents. We weren't ordering. A lot of other firms weren't ordering...

CRAMER:

Right. You're right (INAUDIBLE).

MANLEY:

... Things get lost. And I think on balance, the numbers are still getting better.

CRAMER:

OK.

BUTTNER:

OK, oil services company Schlumberger. Aren't you really being held hostage by oil prices here, even though the group is admittedly very cheap?

MANLEY:

Well, sure. But I mean, I'd rather be held hostage by an oil price than just about anything else at this point.

(LAUGHTER)

MANLEY:

Oil prices are up an awful lot. It's not a question of them going higher. It's a question of not going down that much.

You know, $18- to $20-a-barrel oil, which is substantially below where we are today in the market, would still be enough I think to bring a lot of drilling activity, and a lot of oilfield service activity.

So I'm sort of playing the notion not that it goes up that much, it just doesn't go down. And you have a pretty good momentum story.

CRAMER:

John, when does it kick in? This past quarter wasn't so good. But oil has been up now for I don't know how many months. But these guys are not reporting good numbers yet.

MANLEY:

No they're not. But they're reporting less bad numbers than before.

CRAMER:

Do you think this bad to good?

MANLEY:

I think it is bad to good. Think at the beginning of '98. They were reporting great numbers at the beginning of '98.

And what happened? It fell apart. It couldn't be sustained. Earnings expectations are up 50% more in the market. They're now down 50% more in the market.

CRAMER:

Expectations are low for this group.

MANLEY:

And they come back. And I think...

GREENBERG:

Oh, I'm sorry. Well, you know, in this case, this is a company that also is talking about diversifying. And some people are looking for a great hope in diversification.

But this is the same company that I think bought

Fairchild Semiconductor

a long time ago. How do we know these guys really can pull off this -- they want to get a little bit away from oil -- pull this strategy off?

MANLEY:

Well, it's always tough when you're trying to diversify in some areas. I mean, I'd rather just play the oilfield service area and let their diversification work out over a long period of time.

I think you're still playing ultimately the fact that they are the best technology company in oilfield service. And that's what you want to be in.

BUTTNER:

OK, gentlemen, time's up for Stock Drill. John Manley from Salomon Smith Barney, thanks for being here. We'll track IBM and Schlumberger and see how they're doing next time you're on the show.

But up next, some big predictions about Dell. Which way is that stock heading next? You need to hear this.

BUTTNER:

We've got what you've been waiting for, Predictions.

Rejoining us from

TheStreet.com

, Jim Cramer, Herb Greenberg and Dave Kansas. And in Washington, Gary B. Smith. Over there in San Francisco, Adam Lashinsky.

All right, Jim, you're up first. What's going to happen?

CRAMER:

I worship Dick Vermeil.

(CROSSTALK)

BUTTNER:

We're not talking about the Super Bowl. Come on now, we're talking about stocks, not the Super Bowl.

CRAMER:

All right. The banks. I keep talking about them. I love them. I think the banks make you money for the rest of the year.

Herb and I were talking beforehand. He thinks it's a one time that he's going to see me not in the banks a month from now, two months from now. I'm making a stand: 2000 is the year for the banks.

BUTTNER:

Herb.

GREENBERG:

This slow growth is going to catch up with Dell Computer. The short-sellers I know who had been shorting stock at these levels don't expect to cover until it's in the 20s.

BUTTNER:

A ways to go yet. OK, Dave.

KANSAS:

Federal Reserve nervous about the market and the economy. Fifty basis points on Tuesday, not 25. And I think that's what we saw on Friday was realization...

CRAMER:

Is that what we saw?

KANSAS:

... That...

CRAMER:

OK, I was thinking that there must have been built in...

(LAUGHTER)

CRAMER:

... because man, that was a pretty crummy day.

KANSAS:

A pretty bad day, but...

(CROSSTALK)

BUTTNER:

That was one of the things. OK...

KANSAS:

... extra little thing.

BUTTNER:

Gary, BUAN.

SMITH:

Yes, two predictions. Massive inflows to the Herb Greenberg short fund is one...

(LAUGHTER)

SMITH:

... And No. 2, no matter what the Fed does, I'll even give you the 50 basis points, Dave, we have a big up week next week.

KANSAS:

We'll see, Gary. But I think a big surprise like that, it's no big up week. No big up week.

SMITH:

I'll tell you what, a lot of the nutball stock charts look lousy. But there's a lot of charts that still look pretty good.

BUTTNER:

All right, Adam, I think you're going to pick on Herb, too.

LASHINSKY:

Brenda, I hate to disagree with Herb Greenberg. But I think that Dell Computer has some tricks up its sleeve, that most of the worst of the bad news is behind it, and that we'll see 70 by the end of the year.

BUTTNER:

Oh, wow.

LASHINSKY:

I'm giving myself 11 months with this prediction...

(CROSSTALK)

GREENBERG:

Adam, you say 75 by the end of the year. Adam, is that after it's gone to the 20, or is that before it's gone?

(LAUGHTER)

LASHINSKY:

No comment on that, Herb. Seventies sometime during 2000.

BUTTNER:

OK, there you have it, the sure thing.

All right, you can't leave without getting your predictions on something that really counts. Who is going to win the Super Bowl?

OK, Jim, I think you've already told us.

CRAMER:

You know, oh, I just want the Rams to win so badly that I can't make the prediction. It just has to happen.

BUTTNER:

OK. Herb.

GREENBERG:

I used to live in Nashville. I used to live by some of the current coaches of the Titans. I pick the Titans.

BUTTNER:

Dave.

KANSAS:

Les Steckel, offensive coordinator for the Titans, former Viking coach, like the Titans.

BUTTNER:

All right and, Gary and Adam, you'll be sticking with your picks from the stock Super Bowl?

SMITH:

Yeah, miracle continues. Titans.

LASHINSKY:

Drink Bud and go with the Rams.

(LAUGHTER)

BUTTNER:

Drink Bud period. All right, and for the record, guys, I'm taking the Titans. You've got to love Tennessee. All right, and we hope you enjoy the game no matter who wins.

But when that opening bell rings Monday morning and you want to find out what is making the markets move, make sure to check out our Web site

TheStreet.com

. Every day, the site is filled with information and articles about the stock market from breaking news to in-depth analysis, all designed to help you become a better investor.

Well, thanks for joining us. We'll see you here next week on "TheStreet.com." Until then, we hope you invest wisely.

To order a tape or transcript of this "TheStreet.com" program, please call 888-44-FOXTV or use our online

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Copy: Content and Programming Copyright 1999 Fox News Network, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Transcription Copyright 1999 Federal Document Clearing House, Inc., which takes sole responsibility for the accuracy of the transcription. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No license is granted to the user of this material except for the user's personal or internal use and, in such case, only one copy may be printed, nor shall user use any material for commercial purposes or in any fashion that may infringe upon Fox News Network, Inc.'s and Federal Document Clearing House, Inc.'s copyrights or other proprietary rights or interests in the material. This is not a legal transcript for purposes of litigation.