It's a Numbers Game - TheStreet

Hold it! Those of you who are convinced that the market can't turn that fast or change that completely, those of you who are skeptical about a switch, you must ask yourselves this.

What would have happened today if the purchasing managers report had been strong? What would have happened if the prices hadn't peaked? What would have happened if there had been further acceleration?

I think the answer is easy. We would have retested the lows last week. It would have happened that way because it meant the

Fed

was only midway through and would have to tighten much more. That was a high risk. One that I didn't want to take at my firm.

Sometimes data come out that change things. Sometimes data come out that make a bull case better. That happened. Different data would have made a bear case.

That's just the way it works. Always has. Always will.

James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund had no positions in any stocks mentioned. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at

jjcletters@thestreet.com.