The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed the trading week at all-time closing highs while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the week on the downside. The Russell 2000 finished the week higher, but not at an all-time closing high.
After a favorable jobs report Friday, it would appear that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its March 15 meeting. Will this be the last gasp for the markets? Will the Fed deflate the bubble that has been expanding for a couple of years now?
Attached is a chart of the Weekly S&P Index chart that includes my proprietary trading numbers. As you can see, the SST Strategic Number on the weekly time frame closed with a 98.22. This is the highest weekly closing number since August, 2016. In addition, the S&P is trading near the top of its weekly risk range. When that happens, it is inevitable that the markets will retrace back to the middle of the trading range, at the very least. Many times we see the indexes test the bottom of the risk range. That is a long way down.
We also are getting the same overbought confirmation on the monthly time frame.
The CBOE Market Volatility Index closed trading with a 10 handle. This is near the all-time closing low of $9.8. Complacency is running rampant in this stock market and that is never a good thing.
Thus, when the markets are setting all-time closing highs and the Market Volatility Index is near all-time closing lows, it is time to take notice. Chasing is a fool's game. It would appear that this equity market is living on borrowed time and the end of this bull market may be sooner than you think. The next Fed rate increase is nearing. Are you prepared?
Gold and the gold miners higher so far this year. The SPDR Gold Trust is up 6% while the Daily Gold Miners Bull 3x is higher by 56% in 2017.
Both are the sectors of choice for the rest of 2017 and should move much higher as the equity market topping process plays out.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author was long Daily Gold Miners Bull 3x.