More squeeze ahead. The bond market's benign reaction to stronger-than-expected retail sales, coupled with
better-than-expected report, could ignite things again.
When bonds go up (and interest rates down) on bad news (stronger-than-expected numbers), that could signal that they have overshot where they are going to go.
For me, I am torn here. I want capitulation. I want crescendo. Maybe that will be just plain too easy. Perhaps the fact that 14 deals were canceled this week amounts to a better clue of capitulation than the panic selling that I have been looking for. I want to buy, not sell. But it may turn out that it is best to do nothing.
I am about to call my partner, Jeff, still on vacay, to say, "Heck, the bonds should be down but they are not, and maybe everybody is
Jeff's take -- and he is IMing me now -- is that if
Producer Price Index
is good we will not get capitulation. He sends this to me in big cap letters: WAIT TILL 2:30 TO DECIDE. DO NOTHING AT THE OPENING.
He is right.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund had no positions in any stocks mentioned. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at