Editor's note: This is a special, early edition of Gary B. Smith's Friday TSC Technical Forum column, moved up to Wednesday to address this week's volatility in Internet stocks. Gary's Wednesday Technician's Take column will appear Friday.
Love the company, but respect the support line.
Case in point is
, which I shorted on May 21 and cleaned up May 24 for a nice profit. Now, nothing against the fine folks at EarthLink, but support was busted. And that's why the prudent move was to short the stock and make my profit on the downside.
Why do I bring this up? Because I suspect many of you are in love with the long positions on your Net stocks. Shoot, who wouldn't want to be married to something like
if it put an extra 150% in your pocket this year!
But it's many of those same Net stocks that are close to buckling, if not now, then soon. ELNK was one, of course, but take a look at these. Some are goners, some might be goners by the time your read this, some are goners in waiting and, of course, some might never be goners. It never hurts to think about it, though.
So now you know what to look for with your own long positions, and where to get worried. With these stocks you have to take the position the wife of a billionaire did when he asked, "Honey, if I lost all my money tomorrow, would you still love me?" To which she replied, "Honey, I'd love you ... but I'd miss you."
Remember, love the company. Respect the support line.
In CUST We Trust
A reader wrote in this week and said my remarks last Friday must have "moved"
. Uh, yeah, right: Only if my wife and kids went out and each bought 100,000 shares each!
But, I did notice the subsequent action in the stock. And since I noted when to get in, I also wanted to note when to get out. When to get in, of course, is when Herb Greenberg expresses concern about the stock! (Sorry, that was low. Must have been a Freudian slip.) No, when to get in was the breakout of May 17. When to get out? After the blowoff of May 24 certainly would have been a good time.
Remember, I love good volume as a stock ascends. Ridiculous volume, though, is generally a warning sign that the party is over, even if only temporarily.
Boy, is everyone long
? That was easily the most requested stock this past week. I mean, if AOL cracks, is that pretty much it for the market? Who knows, but I do know this: See my opening remarks and think about your AOL position!
And as long as we're doing the
, I also had a lot of requests for
, which doesn't look swell. But who can tell? Well, here's my sell.
takes a different tack, querying about a former can't-miss sector, which then turned tail and couldn't get out of its own way. Yes, I speak of that wacky oil services sector, using
as my poster child.
And that, folks, is a wrap. Have a request for next week? Send it my way at
email@example.com. I love charts in the news, so it's your job to bring me the story!