If Bonds Would Only Behave

Cisco's good news could spark a serious rise in tech stocks, but the success of any rally hinges on the bonds.
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Cisco

(CSCO) - Get Report

sure did its part to further the

NDX

rally. And this time we don't have to guess why the firm didn't do a split; we got one right off the bat.

The confidence steaming off this call made me feel better about tech than I have in weeks. Now if the bond market would stop being such a butt pain, we could get something serious going again in tech, maybe even retrace the points lost in the last month.

Remember, Cisco has done nothing but mark time as we awaited the results of this quarter. I am betting that on Wednesday, analysts will gush about this one, and state that all is well in all of the markets that Cisco plies. That could be good news for a whole group of stalled telco-tech stocks.

But the good news will be fleeting if these bonds don't stop going down (and up in yield.) Which means that we will have another

NBA

match on our hands, for Wednesday -- one that won't be decided until the 10-year jump bond ball shows us either to 6% or back to 5.625% (on the 30-year), where tech buyers will emerge and re-energize the sector.

You know which way I am betting.

Random musings:

Thanks for all of the kind kudos from so many of you today. My dad and sister were overwhelmed as I scrolled through the great emails one by one in front of them. A truly blessed day.

James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund was long Cisco and 30-year bonds. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at

letters@thestreet.com.