Outdoor sporting goods retailer Sportsman's Warehouse (SPWH) - Get Report will report fourth-quarter earnings results after the closing bell Wednesday. If you are looking for a stock that's poised to rally on better-than-expected results, start buying now.
At around $13, shares are up 3.3% year to date and 65% over the past year, so Sportsman's Warehouse has tons of momentum into Wednesday's report. Even with these gains, Sportsman's Warehouse has a consensus buy rating with an average analyst 12-month price target of $16, which implies 20% more gains from current levels.
The reason for the confidence? The Utah company is one of the largest outdoor sporting retailers in the U.S., with hunting among the activities driving its profits and accounting for roughly half of its total sales. Smith & Wesson's (SWHC) earnings also showed that firearms sales and ammunition is a booming industry.
For the quarter that ended January, Sportsman's is expected to earn 25 cents per share on revenue of $206.21 million, translating to year-over-year growth of 13.6% and 11%, respectively. For the full year, earnings are projected to climb 18% year over year to 59 cents per share, while revenue of $723 million would mark a year-over-year increase of 9.6%.
Sportsman's Warehouse, which went public in 2014, is coming off two straight quarterly earnings beats. In fact, in all seven of its reporting periods as a public company, Sportsman's Warehouse has beaten earnings estimates six times. The one instance where it didn't exceed estimates, its results were in line with the consensus.
So Sportsman's Warehouse presents a compelling buying opportunity for investors willing to patient for the next 12 to 18 months. The stock is attractively priced at 17 times fiscal 2016 estimates of 75 cents per share even though its forward price to earnings multiple is in line with the S&P 500 index.
But if earnings reach 75 cents for fiscal 2016, this would mark a 27% year-over-year rise in profits, which would be more than five times the S&P 500 index's average actual earnings.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.