The S&P 500 has rallied to the top of our pivot box.
Moreover, the index's high struck a point at which we can consider the rally off the July 6 low as a complete five waves, based on the Elliott Wave Theory.
That means that the market has a decision to make.
Will it continue pulling back correctively and making higher highs, taking out the 2,185 to 2,192 region on the S&P 500 and rising to about 2,300, sooner rather than later? Or, are we finally going to see a real pullback, with the potential to still even see, on the chart below, a yellow (c) wave much lower?
It is difficult to answer that question, so we will leave it to the price to lead the way over the next few days.
Clearly, the S&P 500 must drop below 2,159 to even begin thoughts of a pullback. And, if such a break of support begins in an impulsive structure, then be on the lookout for that (c) wave potential.
But, if the drop is more in line with a corrective decline, then it will likely limit the amount downside.
However, investors should keep the bigger picture in mind.
The market is likely setting up to head to 2,300 and higher over the next year. There are only questions at this point about the depth of the next pullback and how it will take shape.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor.